未来海洋因人类活动放大自然 CO2 循环而导致的超二氧化碳化。
Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle.
机构信息
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Thinkable.org, 299 Sussex Street, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
出版信息
Nature. 2016 Jan 21;529(7586):383-6. doi: 10.1038/nature16156.
High carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in sea-water (ocean hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual variations in oceanic CO2 concentration, but there is a lack of relevant global observational data. Here we identify global ocean patterns of monthly variability in carbon concentration using observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface-ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We predict that the present-day amplitude of the natural oscillations in oceanic CO2 concentration will be amplified by up to tenfold in some regions by 2100, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (according to the RCP8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The findings from our data are broadly consistent with projections from Earth system climate models. Our predicted amplification of the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic oceans to hypercapnia many decades earlier than is expected from average atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean 'CO2 hotspots' evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO2 concentration and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the oceans that lowers the buffer capacity in these regions, causing a nonlinear amplification of CO2 concentration over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia (when the partial pressure of CO2 in sea-water exceeds 1,000 micro-atmospheres) is forecast for atmospheric CO2 concentrations that exceed 650 parts per million, with hypercapnia expected in up to half the surface ocean by 2100, assuming a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Such extensive ocean hypercapnia has detrimental implications for fisheries during the twenty-first century.
海水(海洋酸化)中高浓度的二氧化碳(CO2)会导致海洋动物出现神经、生理和行为缺陷。预测海洋酸化的发生和演变需要很好地理解海洋中 CO2 浓度的年际变化,但目前缺乏相关的全球观测数据。在这里,我们使用允许我们检查在大气 CO2 浓度不断增加的情况下整个年度周期中表层海洋 CO2 水平演变的观测数据,确定了海洋碳浓度月度变化的全球模式。我们预测,如果大气 CO2 浓度在本世纪内持续上升(根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的 RCP8.5 情景),到 2100 年,一些地区海洋 CO2 浓度自然波动的现有幅度将放大多达十倍。我们的数据预测结果与地球系统气候模型的预测结果基本一致。我们预测的年度 CO2 循环放大具有明显的全球模式,这可能使南大洋、太平洋和北大西洋的主要渔业在比预期的大气 CO2 浓度更早的几十年内暴露于海洋酸化之中。我们认为,这些海洋“CO2 热点”的演变是 CO2 浓度强烈季节性动态与海洋中人为 CO2 的长期有效储存相结合的结果,降低了这些区域的缓冲能力,导致 CO2 浓度在年周期中呈非线性放大。当海水的 CO2 分压超过 1000 微大气压时,预计海洋酸化就会发生,到 2100 年,预计高达一半的海洋表面会出现海洋酸化,假设排放情景很高(RCP8.5)。在二十一世纪,这种广泛的海洋酸化对渔业产生了不利影响。