Popova Ekaterina, Yool Andrew, Byfield Valborg, Cochrane Kevern, Coward Andrew C, Salim Shyam S, Gasalla Maria A, Henson Stephanie A, Hobday Alistair J, Pecl Gretta T, Sauer Warwick H, Roberts Michael J
National Oceanography Centre, U. Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
Rhodes University, Drosty Road, Grahamstown, 6139, South Africa.
Glob Chang Biol. 2016 Jun;22(6):2038-53. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13247. Epub 2016 Mar 21.
Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.
海洋变暖“热点区”是近年来温度升高高于平均水平的区域，这对海洋生物资源以及依赖这些资源的社会都会产生重大影响。因此，它们是理解海洋气候变化影响的早期预警系统，也是开发应对这些影响的适应方案的试验平台。在此，我们研究了澳大利亚东部、南非、马达加斯加、印度和巴西沿海的五个热点区。这些特定的热点区支撑了一个大型国际合作项目，该项目致力于通过提供和共享知识，对沿海海洋食物资源的未来状况进行特征描述、评估和预测，从而改善社区适应能力。为了给这项工作提供信息支持，我们采用了一个高分辨率全球海洋模型，该模型由代表性浓度路径8.5驱动，并模拟至2099年。除了海面温度，我们还分析了预计的分层、营养物质供应、初级生产力、人为二氧化碳驱动的海洋酸化、脱氧和海洋环流。我们的模拟结果表明，这里研究的由温度定义的热点区将继续变暖，但除了澳大利亚东部外，在下个世纪可能不会一直是升温最快的海洋区域，因为预计最强的变暖将发生在北半球的亚极地和极地地区。此外，我们发现近期海表温度的快速变化不一定表明这些区域也是所研究的其他气候压力源的热点区。然而，这里研究的热点区的一个共同特点是它们都受到海洋环流的强烈影响，海洋环流在最近已经显示出变化，并且预计在未来还会发生进一步的强烈变化。除了快速变暖外，局部海洋环流的变化是当前和未来气候变化影响这些区域海洋生态系统的一个显著特征。
