Olson Elise M, John Jasmin G, Dunne John P, Stock Charles A, Drenkard Elizabeth J
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Jul;31(7):e70360. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70360.
We analyze the frequency and amplitude of projected warming and ocean acidification extremes under high CO and strongly mitigating scenarios. We find interpretational differences in projections arising from methodological choices associated with specification of stressor thresholds. Use of absolute versus distribution-based thresholds, and, in the distribution-based case, the inclusion or exclusion of seasonal variability, can lead to very different regional patterns in projected stress. The choice of fixed versus adaptive baseline, for example, determines whether future stress frequency in the low-CO scenario most closely resembles that in the high-emissions scenario or historical period. We find that mitigation through emissions reductions, in combination with representation of rates of adaptation that are realistic for some marine organisms, has the potential to dampen end of century threshold exceedance to frequencies of occurrence closer to the recent historical period than to the high-emissions scenario.
我们分析了在高二氧化碳排放和强减排情景下预计的极端气候变暖及海洋酸化的频率和幅度。我们发现，由于与压力源阈值设定相关的方法选择，预测结果存在解释上的差异。使用绝对阈值与基于分布的阈值，以及在基于分布的情况下，纳入或排除季节变异性，会导致预测压力出现非常不同的区域模式。例如，固定基线与自适应基线的选择，决定了低二氧化碳情景下未来压力频率与高排放情景或历史时期的相似程度。我们发现，通过减排实现的缓解措施，结合对某些海洋生物现实可行的适应率表示，有可能将本世纪末阈值超标的频率抑制到更接近近期历史时期而非高排放情景的水平。
