ECOLAB, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, France.
Institute of Ecology, CEC Group, Lund University, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden.
Environ Pollut. 2016 Jun;213:1016-1027. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.12.048. Epub 2016 Jan 22.
A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term.
采用动态耦合生物地球化学-生态模型来模拟氮沉降和气候变化对法国三个森林地点植物群落的影响。这三个地点的森林覆盖类型不同（无梗栎、挪威云杉和银枞），氮负荷从相对较低到较高不等，气候区域和土壤类型也不同。植物时间序列的可用性和林下物种的生态位，使得可以评估模型对三种植物群落组成的预测能力。生态位的校准是成功的，模型在三个地点的性能始终相当高。对两种气候和两种沉积情景的模型模拟表明，气候变化可能会完全破坏模拟植物群落对氮沉降减少的富营养化的最终恢复。在长期情况下，气候和沉积之间的相互作用受站点特征和历史的强烈影响，而森林管理在短期内仍然是变化的主要驱动力。
