University of Vechta, Chair of Landscape Ecology, P.O.B. 1553, 49377 Vechta, Germany.
University of Vechta, Chair of Landscape Ecology, P.O.B. 1553, 49377 Vechta, Germany.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Jul 15;521-522:108-22. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.03.048. Epub 2015 Mar 30.
A methodology for mapping ecosystems and their potential development under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition was developed using examples from Germany. The methodology integrated data on vegetation, soil, climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. These data were used to classify ecosystem types regarding six ecological functions and interrelated structures. Respective data covering 1961-1990 were used for reference. The assessment of functional and structural integrity relies on comparing a current or future state with an ecosystem type-specific reference. While current functions and structures of ecosystems were quantified by measurements, potential future developments were projected by geochemical soil modelling and data from a regional climate change model. The ecosystem types referenced the potential natural vegetation and were mapped using data on current tree species coverage and land use. In this manner, current ecosystem types were derived, which were related to data on elevation, soil texture, and climate for the years 1961-1990. These relations were quantified by Classification and Regression Trees, which were used to map the spatial patterns of ecosystem type clusters for 1961-1990. The climate data for these years were subsequently replaced by the results of a regional climate model for 1991-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. For each of these periods, one map of ecosystem type clusters was produced and evaluated with regard to the development of areal coverage of ecosystem type clusters over time. This evaluation of the structural aspects of ecological integrity at the national level was added by projecting potential future values of indicators for ecological functions at the site level by using the Very Simple Dynamic soil modelling technique based on climate data and two scenarios of nitrogen deposition as input. The results were compared to the reference and enabled an evaluation of site-specific ecosystem changes over time which proved to be both, positive and negative.
采用德国的实例，开发了一种用于在气候变化和大气氮沉积下绘制生态系统及其潜在发展图的方法。该方法整合了植被、土壤、气候变化和大气氮沉积的数据。这些数据用于根据六种生态功能和相关结构对生态系统类型进行分类。分别使用了涵盖 1961-1990 年的数据作为参考。对功能和结构完整性的评估依赖于将当前或未来状态与特定生态系统类型的参考值进行比较。虽然当前生态系统的功能和结构是通过测量来量化的，但潜在的未来发展则是通过地球化学土壤模型和区域气候变化模型的数据来预测的。所参考的生态系统类型是潜在的自然植被，并使用当前树种覆盖和土地利用的数据进行绘制。通过这种方式，得出了当前的生态系统类型，并将其与 1961-1990 年的海拔、土壤质地和气候数据相关联。这些关系通过分类和回归树进行量化，并用于绘制 1961-1990 年生态系统类型聚类的空间模式图。随后，用区域气候变化模型代替这些年份的气候数据，对 1991-2010 年、2011-2040 年和 2041-2070 年的气候数据进行模拟。对于每个时间段，都会生成一张生态系统类型聚类图，并根据生态系统类型聚类的面积覆盖随时间的变化来评估其发展情况。通过使用基于气候数据的非常简单的动态土壤模型技术，并将氮沉积的两种情景作为输入，对站点水平的生态功能指标的潜在未来值进行预测，从而在国家层面上对生态完整性的结构方面进行评估。将结果与参考值进行比较，从而可以评估随时间变化的特定地点的生态系统变化，这些变化既有积极的，也有消极的。
