E&S Environmental Chemistry Inc., P.O. Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339, USA.
Belyazid Consulting & Communication AB, Stationsvägen 13, 517 34 Bollebygd, Sweden.
Environ Pollut. 2014 Apr;187:55-64. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2013.12.021. Epub 2014 Jan 18.
To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone.
为了评估气候变化和大气氮（N）沉积对亚高山生态系统的潜在长期影响，应用耦合生物地球化学和植被群落竞争模型 ForSAFE-Veg 对科罗拉多州落基山国家公园洛克谷流域的一个地点进行了模拟。与背景和估计的未来群落组成相比，自 1900 年以来气候和 N 沉积的变化导致模拟的植物物种覆盖发生了明显变化。为了防止生物多样性平均发生 10%的未来（2010-2100 年）变化，估计的 N 沉积临界负荷（CL）在 1.9 至 3.5 千克 N/公顷/年之间。结果表明，CL 已经超标，由于 N 沉积，研究地点的植被已经发生了超过 10%的变化。未来空气温度的升高预计会导致植物群落组成的进一步变化，从而加剧了单独对 N 沉积的响应变化。
