Mendes Chrystian Soares, Coelho Alexandre Bragança, Féres José Gustavo, Souza Elvanio Costa de, Cunha Dênis Antônio da
Instituto de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Mariana, MG, Brasil,
Departamento de Economia Rural, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Brasil.
Cien Saude Colet. 2016 Jan;21(1):263-72. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232015211.03992015.
This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.
本文旨在评估气候变化将如何在三个时间框架（2010 - 2039年、2040 - 2079年和2080 - 2100年）以及两种气候变化情景下影响巴西利什曼病的扩散情况。研究估计了温度、降水量与利什曼病住院人数之间的关系，并利用这些结果进行了预测。结果表明，降水量与利什曼病发病率密切相关，预测显示，到21世纪末，巴西因利什曼病住院的年度人数将比基准情景（1992 - 2002年）增长15%。从区域来看，预测表明除中西部地区外，每个地区的病例数都会增加。相对增长最高的将是该国南部，而绝对增加数最高的将出现在东北地区。总体而言，由于气候变化，巴西利什曼病的发病率将会上升。
