Laboratório de Biologia Molecular e Doenças Endêmicas, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz-Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
Laboratório de Zoologia e Biologia Parasitária, Universidade Estadual do Piauí, Teresina, Piauí, Brasil.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023 Jun 5;17(6):e0011388. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011388. eCollection 2023 Jun.
Leishmaniases are vector borne diseases caused by Leishmania spp. parasites transmitted by female sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) whose geographic distribution is influenced by environmental factors. Among the main tools for studying the distribution of vector species, modeling techniques are used to analyze the influence of climatic and environmental factors on the distribution of these insects and their association with human cases of the disease.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we used a multiscale ecological niche modeling approach to assess the environmental suitability of sandfly vectors of the etiological agents of Visceral (VL) and American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) in Piauí state, northeastern Brazil, and then evaluated their relationship with human disease incidence. For this, we obtained the geographic coordinates of the vector species Lutzomyia longipalpis and Nyssomyia whitmani through literature review, online databases and unpublished records. These data were used for the development of predictive models of the distribution of both sandflies species based on climatic and environmental variables. Finally, the environmental suitability for the presence of these vectors was compared with the incidence of both the diseases at the municipality level. The final models for each sandfly species showed good predictive powers with performance metric values of 0.889 for Lu. longipalpis and 0.776 for Ny. whitmani. The areas with greater environmental suitability for the presence of these species were concentrated in the central-north region of Piauí and coincide with the location of those municipalities presenting higher incidences of VL and ACL, situated in the central-north and extreme north of the state, respectively. The south and southeast regions of Piauí state have low incidence of these diseases and presented low environmental suitability for the presence of both vectors.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We discuss how predictive modeling can guide entomological and epidemiological surveillances and recommend an increased supervision and control activities in Teresina (capital of the state of Piaui), Altos and Pedro II, in addition to other municipalities with similar social and environmental characteristics.
利什曼病是由利什曼原虫属寄生虫引起的虫媒病，通过雌性沙蝇（双翅目：鳞翅目）传播，其地理分布受环境因素影响。在研究媒介物种分布的主要工具中，建模技术用于分析气候和环境因素对这些昆虫分布的影响及其与疾病人类病例的关联。
方法/主要发现：在这里，我们使用多尺度生态位建模方法来评估巴西东北部皮奥伊州内脏（VL）和美洲皮肤利什曼病（ACL）病原体的沙蝇媒介的环境适宜性，然后评估它们与人类疾病发病率的关系。为此，我们通过文献回顾、在线数据库和未发表的记录获得了 Lutzomyia longipalpis 和 Nyssomyia whitmani 等媒介物种的地理坐标。这些数据用于开发基于气候和环境变量的两种沙蝇物种分布预测模型。最后，将这些媒介的存在的环境适宜性与市一级两种疾病的发病率进行了比较。每种沙蝇物种的最终模型都表现出良好的预测能力，Lu. longipalpis 的性能指标值为 0.889，Ny. whitmani 的性能指标值为 0.776。这些物种存在的环境适宜性较大的地区集中在皮奥伊州的中北部，与 VL 和 ACL 发病率较高的城市相对应，分别位于该州的中北部和最北部。皮奥伊州的南部和东南部地区这些疾病的发病率较低，两种媒介存在的环境适宜性较低。
结论/意义：我们讨论了预测模型如何指导昆虫学和流行病学监测，并建议在特雷斯皮纳斯（皮奥伊州首府）、阿尔托斯和佩德罗二世加强监督和控制活动，此外还建议在其他具有类似社会和环境特征的城市采取类似措施。
