[2009 - 2013年甘肃省腮腺炎的时空分布]

[Spatial temporal distribution of mumps in Gansu, 2009-2013].

作者信息

Liu Dongpeng, Meng Lei, Gou Faxiang, Wei Kongfu, Yang Xiaoting, Liu Xinfeng

机构信息

Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China.

Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, China; Email:

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2015 Nov;36(11):1258-62.

PMID:26850247

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To detect the spatial temporal distribution of mumps in Gansu by means of spatial statistics.

METHODS

The county-based incidence of mumps from 2009 to 2013 was used to calculate the global Moran's I and local G statistics, and analyze its spatial temporal distribution characteristics.

RESULTS

The incidence of mumps in Gansu were spatial auto-correlated from 2009 to 2013 respectively (P<0.001), and the hot spots were mainly distributed in Hexi area, while the cold spots were distributed in Tianshui, Longnan and Qingyang. Spatial temporal analysis showed that the high incidence of mumps was most likely to be detect in Hexi area (RR=3.05, LLR=4 670.995, P<0.001), and the low incidence was most likely to be detect in Longdong area (RR=0.36, LLR=1 980.686, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The spatial and spatial temporal clustering of mumps existed in Gansu from 2009 to 2013, the results can be used in the development of mumps prevention and control measure in Gansu.

摘要

目的

运用空间统计学方法探讨甘肃省腮腺炎发病的时空分布特征。

方法

采用2009 - 2013年以县为单位的腮腺炎发病率，计算全局Moran's I和局部G统计量，并分析其时空分布特征。

结果

2009 - 2013年甘肃省腮腺炎发病率均存在空间自相关性（P<0.001），热点地区主要分布在河西地区，冷点地区分布在天水、陇南及庆阳。时空分析显示，河西地区腮腺炎高发可能性最大（RR = 3.05，LLR = 4670.995，P<0.001），陇东地区低发可能性最大（RR = 0.36，LLR = 1980.686，P<0.001）。