Seppä L, Hausen H, Pöllänen L, Helasharju K, Kärkkäinen S
Faculty of Dentistry, University of Kuopio, Finland.
Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1989 Dec;17(6):277-81. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0528.1989.tb00635.x.
The aim of the present study was to evaluate the power of past caries experience in primary and permanent dentition in predicting caries prevalence at the age of 13 yr. Clinical and radiographical examination was performed in 512 13-yr-olds by a trained research team. The 6-12-yr dmfs and DMFS values were obtained from the Public Dental Care records. For evaluating the accuracy of predictions, the children were cross-classified according to each past caries score and the 13-yr score. The cutting points were selected to that the children in the upper quartile of caries experience formed the predicted and true high caries groups, leaving about 75% in the low caries groups. Pearson correlations were also calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of caries in primary teeth (6 yr) were 57% and 85%, respectively. For permanent dentition, sensitivity was the lowest (28%) at the age of 6, reached 68% at the age of 9 and remained at that level until age 12. Specificity decreased from 92% (6 yr) to 85% (9 yr) and then steadily increased to 93% (12 yr). Correlation increased with age from 0.37 to 0.82. When screening for high caries increment in young children, caries in primary dentition seems a better screening criterion than caries in permanent first molars. When the aim is to identify those subjects with high caries increment later on, screening at age 9 seems as accurate as that done later.
本研究的目的是评估乳牙和恒牙过去的龋病经历对预测13岁时龋病患病率的作用。一个经过培训的研究团队对512名13岁儿童进行了临床和影像学检查。6至12岁的乳牙龋失补牙面数（dmfs）和恒牙龋失补牙面数（DMFS）值来自公共牙科保健记录。为了评估预测的准确性，根据每个过去的龋病评分和13岁时的评分对儿童进行交叉分类。选择切点，使得龋病经历处于上四分位数的儿童构成预测的和实际的高龋组，低龋组约占75%。还计算了皮尔逊相关性。乳牙（6岁）龋病的敏感性和特异性分别为57%和85%。对于恒牙，敏感性在6岁时最低（28%），9岁时达到68%，并一直保持到12岁。特异性从92%（6岁）降至85%（9岁），然后稳步升至93%（12岁）。相关性随年龄从0.37增至0.82。在筛查幼儿高龋病增量时，乳牙龋病似乎比恒牙第一磨牙龋病是更好的筛查标准。当目的是识别那些后来有高龋病增量的受试者时，9岁时的筛查似乎与之后进行的筛查一样准确。
