School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Dec 1;572:1601-1610. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.128. Epub 2016 Feb 11.
Pathogens are an ongoing issue for catchment water management and quantifying their transport, loss and potential impacts at key locations, such as water abstractions for public supply and bathing sites, is an important aspect of catchment and coastal management. The Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) has been adapted to model the sources and sinks of pathogens and to capture the dominant dynamics and processes controlling pathogens in catchments. The model simulates the stores of pathogens in soils, sediments, rivers and groundwaters and can account for diffuse inputs of pathogens from agriculture, urban areas or atmospheric deposition. The model also allows for point source discharges from intensive livestock units or from sewage treatment works or any industrial input to river systems. Model equations are presented and the new pathogens model has been applied to the River Thames in order to assess total coliform (TC) responses under current and projected future land use. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis indicates that the input coliform estimates from agricultural sources and decay rates are the crucial parameters controlling pathogen behaviour. Whilst there are a number of uncertainties associated with the model that should be accounted for, INCA-Pathogens potentially provides a useful tool to inform policy decisions and manage pathogen loading in river systems.
病原体是集水区水管理的一个持续存在的问题，量化其在关键位置（如公共供水和浴场的水抽取）的运输、损失和潜在影响，是集水区和沿海管理的一个重要方面。综合集水区模型（INCA）已经过改编，用于模拟病原体的来源和汇，以捕捉控制集水区中病原体的主要动态和过程。该模型模拟了土壤、沉积物、河流和地下水中病原体的储存量，并可以考虑到农业、城市地区或大气沉积中病原体的漫射输入。该模型还允许从集约化牲畜单位或污水处理厂或任何工业输入到河流系统的点源排放。本文介绍了模型方程，并将新的病原体模型应用于泰晤士河，以评估当前和未来土地利用下总大肠菌群（TC）的响应。蒙特卡罗敏感性分析表明，来自农业源的输入大肠菌群估计值和衰减率是控制病原体行为的关键参数。尽管模型存在一些应考虑的不确定性，但 INCA-Pathogens 可能提供了一个有用的工具，可以为政策决策提供信息，并管理河流系统中的病原体负荷。
