Fernández-Carrión E, Ivorra B, Martínez-López B, Ramos A M, Sánchez-Vizcaíno J M
VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Complutense University of Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
MOMAT Research Group, IMI-Institute and Applied Mathematics Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Plaza de Ciencias, 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
Prev Vet Med. 2016 Apr 1;126:66-73. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.01.015. Epub 2016 Feb 1.
Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics.
Be-FAST是一个基于时空随机传播数学模型的计算机程序，用于研究传染性家畜疾病在农场内部和农场之间的传播。目前的工作描述了一个集成到Be-FAST中的新模块，用于模拟经典猪瘟（CSF）和其他传染性家畜疾病在农场内部和农场之间传播的经济后果。在全球养猪业中，CSF在经济上是最具破坏性的疾病之一。特别是在西班牙，过去两次CSF疫情（1997年和2001年）的经济成本总计超过1.08亿欧元。目前的分析表明，严重的CSF疫情会带来巨大的经济成本，其中约80%与动物扑杀有关。与控制措施相关的直接成本与受感染农场的数量密切相关，而间接成本与疫情持续时间的关联更为紧密。该经济模型已通过西班牙上次疫情周围的经济信息进行了验证。这些结果表明，我们的经济模块可能有助于分析和预测家畜疾病疫情的经济后果。
