Karsten S, Rave G, Krieter J
Institute of Animal Breeding and Husbandry, Christian-Albrechts-University, Hermann-Rodewald-Str. 6, 24118 Kiel, Germany.
Vet Microbiol. 2005 Jul 1;108(3-4):187-98. doi: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2005.04.009.
A Monte Carlo simulation has been developed to describe the spread of classical swine fever virus between farms within a certain region. The data of the farms can be imported and considered individually. Transmission occurs via the infection routes direct animal and indirect person and vehicle contact, as well as by contaminated sperm and local spread. Parameters, such as incubation period and probability of detection, can be varied by the user and their impact on disease spread can be studied. The control measures stamping-out, movement control and pre-emptive slaughter in circular restriction areas as well as contact tracing can be applied and their effect on disease spread can thus be analysed. The numbers of culled and restricted farms and animals per epidemic and per day within an epidemic, the epidemic duration and the total length of restrictions per restricted farm are given. In an example, simulation runs were performed under the condition of application of all four-control measures. Because no real farm data were available, a test area was generated stochastically with a farm density of 1.3 farms/km(2). The distributions of the number of infected farms per epidemic and the epidemic length are shown.
已开发出一种蒙特卡洛模拟方法来描述经典猪瘟病毒在某一区域内各农场之间的传播情况。农场数据可导入并单独考虑。传播途径包括直接动物接触、间接人员和车辆接触以及受污染精液和局部传播。用户可以改变诸如潜伏期和检测概率等参数，并研究它们对疾病传播的影响。可以应用扑杀、移动控制、环形限制区域内的预防性屠宰以及接触者追踪等控制措施，并由此分析它们对疾病传播的影响。给出了每次疫情以及疫情期间每天扑杀和限制的农场及动物数量、疫情持续时间以及每个受限制农场的限制总时长。在一个示例中，在实施所有四项控制措施的条件下进行了模拟运行。由于没有实际农场数据，随机生成了一个农场密度为每平方公里1.3个农场的试验区。展示了每次疫情中感染农场数量的分布情况以及疫情时长。
