Blashfield Roger K, Fuller A Kenneth
*Auburn University (Professor Emeritus), Auburn, AL; and †Department of Psychiatry and Health Behavior, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA.
J Nerv Ment Dis. 2016 Jun;204(6):415-20. doi: 10.1097/NMD.0000000000000491.
Twenty years ago, slightly after the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition was published, we predicted the characteristics of the future Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (fifth edition) (). Included in our predictions were how many diagnoses it would contain, the physical size of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (fifth edition), who its leader would be, how many professionals would be involved in creating it, the revenue generated, and the color of its cover. This article reports on the accuracy of our predictions. Our largest prediction error concerned financial revenue. The earnings growth of the DSM's has been remarkable. Drug company investments, insurance benefits, the financial need of the American Psychiatric Association, and the research grant process are factors that have stimulated the growth of the DSM's. Restoring order and simplicity to the classification of mental disorders will not be a trivial task.
二十年前，在《精神疾病诊断与统计手册》第四版出版后不久，我们预测了未来《精神疾病诊断与统计手册》（第五版）的特点（）。我们的预测包括它将包含多少种诊断、《精神疾病诊断与统计手册》（第五版）的实际尺寸、其主编是谁、有多少专业人员将参与编写、所产生的收入以及封面颜色。本文报告了我们预测的准确性。我们最大的预测误差涉及财政收入。《精神疾病诊断与统计手册》的收益增长显著。制药公司投资、保险福利、美国精神病学协会的资金需求以及研究资助流程都是刺激《精神疾病诊断与统计手册》发展的因素。恢复精神障碍分类的秩序和简洁性并非易事。
