Zayeri Farid, Mansouri Anita, Sheidaei Ali, Rahimzadeh Shadi, Rezaei Nazila, Modirian Mitra, Khademioureh Sara, Baghestani Ahmad Reza, Farzadfar Farshad
Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran E-mail :
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2016;17(2):661-5. doi: 10.7314/apjcp.2016.17.2.661.
Stomach cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of death among cancers throughout the world. Therefore, stomach cancer outcomes can affect health systems at the national and international levels. Although stomach cancer mortality and incidence rates have decreased in developed countries, these indicators have a raising trend in East Asian developing countries, particularity in Iran. In this study, we aimed to determine the time trend of age-standardized rates of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran from 2000 to 2010.
Cases of cancer were registered using a pathology-based system during 2000-2007 and with a population-based system since 2008 in Iran. In this study, we collected information about the incidence of stomach cancer during a 10 year period for 31 provinces and 376 districts, with a total of 49,917 cases. We employed two statistical approaches (a random effects and a random effects Markov model) for modeling the incidence of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran during the studied period.
The random effects model showed that the incidence rate of stomach cancer among males and females had an increasing trend and it increased by 2.38 and 0.87 persons every year, respectively. However, after adjusting for previous responses, the random effects Markov model showed an increasing rate of 1.53 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively.
This study revealed that there are significant differences between different areas of Iran in terms of age-standardized incidence rates of stomach cancer. Our study suggests that a random effects Markov model can adjust for effects of previous. responses.
胃癌是全球第五大常见癌症，也是癌症死亡的第三大主要原因。因此，胃癌的治疗结果会影响国家和国际层面的卫生系统。尽管发达国家的胃癌死亡率和发病率有所下降，但这些指标在东亚发展中国家呈上升趋势，在伊朗尤为明显。在本研究中，我们旨在确定2000年至2010年伊朗不同地区胃癌年龄标准化发病率的时间趋势。
伊朗在2000 - 2007年期间使用基于病理学的系统登记癌症病例，自2008年起使用基于人群的系统。在本研究中，我们收集了31个省和376个地区10年间胃癌发病率的信息，共有49917例病例。我们采用两种统计方法（随机效应模型和随机效应马尔可夫模型）对研究期间伊朗不同地区的胃癌发病率进行建模。
随机效应模型显示，男性和女性的胃癌发病率均呈上升趋势，每年分别增加2.38人和0.87人。然而，在对先前的反应进行调整后，随机效应马尔可夫模型显示男性和女性的增长率分别为1.53和0.75。
本研究表明，伊朗不同地区在胃癌年龄标准化发病率方面存在显著差异。我们的研究表明，随机效应马尔可夫模型可以调整先前反应的影响。
