Moreira Tito Belchior Silva, Tabak Benjamin Miranda, Mendonça Mario Jorge, Sachsida Adolfo
Department of economics, Catholic University of Brasilia, Brasília, Brazil.
Department of economics, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2016 Mar 2;11(3):e0145710. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0145710. eCollection 2016.
This paper evaluates the effect of a change in the quantity of money on relative prices in the U.S. economy based on quarterly time-series for the period of 1959 to 2013. We also estimate the implication of a change in relative prices on the rate of inflation and macroeconomic variables. The empirical results indicate that the change of money supply not only affects relative prices but also affects the inflation rate and real variables, such as investment, natural rate of unemployment and potential GDP, through the change in relative prices. The relevant finding of our study is that money is not neutral in a non-traditional sense because a change in the money supply disturbs relative prices and, consequently, the allocation of resources in the economy. This finding has serious implications that must be considered in the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy.
本文基于1959年至2013年的季度时间序列，评估了货币供应量变化对美国经济中相对价格的影响。我们还估计了相对价格变化对通货膨胀率和宏观经济变量的影响。实证结果表明，货币供应量的变化不仅影响相对价格，还通过相对价格的变化影响通货膨胀率和实际变量，如投资、自然失业率和潜在GDP。我们研究的相关发现是，货币在非传统意义上并非中性，因为货币供应量的变化会扰乱相对价格，进而影响经济中的资源配置。这一发现具有重要意义，在货币政策传导机制中必须予以考虑。
