McCoy Sophie J, Allesina Stefano, Pfister Catherine A
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK
Department of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Chicago, 1101 East 57th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 2016 Mar 16;283(1826):20152561. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2015.2561.
Historical ecological datasets from a coastal marine community of crustose coralline algae (CCA) enabled the documentation of ecological changes in this community over 30 years in the Northeast Pacific. Data on competitive interactions obtained from field surveys showed concordance between the 1980s and 2013, yet also revealed a reduction in how strongly species interact. Here, we extend these empirical findings with a cellular automaton model to forecast ecological dynamics. Our model suggests the emergence of a new dominant competitor in a global change scenario, with a reduced role of herbivory pressure, or trophic control, in regulating competition among CCA. Ocean acidification, due to its energetic demands, may now instead play this role in mediating competitive interactions and thereby promote species diversity within this guild.
来自一个由壳状珊瑚藻（CCA）组成的沿海海洋群落的历史生态数据集，记录了东北太平洋地区该群落30多年来的生态变化。通过实地调查获得的竞争相互作用数据显示，20世纪80年代和2013年之间存在一致性，但也揭示了物种间相互作用强度的降低。在这里，我们用细胞自动机模型扩展了这些实证研究结果，以预测生态动态。我们的模型表明，在全球变化情景下，一种新的优势竞争者将会出现，草食压力或营养控制在调节CCA之间的竞争中所起的作用将会减弱。由于其能量需求，海洋酸化现在可能会在介导竞争相互作用中发挥这一作用，从而促进该群落内的物种多样性。
