Salmonella infections modelling in Mississippi using neural network and geographical information system (GIS).

OBJECTIVES

Mississippi (MS) is one of the southern states with high rates of foodborne infections. The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent of Salmonella and Escherichia coli infections in MS, and determine the Salmonella infections correlation with socioeconomic status using geographical information system (GIS) and neural network models.

METHODS

In this study, the relevant updated data of foodborne illness for southern states, from 2002 to 2011, were collected and used in the GIS and neural networks models. Data were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), MS state Department of Health and the other states department of health. The correlation between low socioeconomic status and Salmonella infections were determined using models created by several software packages, including SAS, ArcGIS @RISK and NeuroShell.

RESULTS

Results of this study showed a significant increase in Salmonella outbreaks in MS during the study period, with highest rates in 2011 (47.84 ± 24.41 cases/100,000; p<0.001). MS had the highest rates of Salmonella outbreaks compared with other states (36 ± 6.29 cases/100,000; p<0.001). Regional and district variations in the rates were also observed. GIS maps of Salmonella outbreaks in MS in 2010 and 2011 showed the districts with higher rates of Salmonella. Regression analysis and neural network models showed a moderate correlation between cases of Salmonella infections and low socioeconomic factors. Poverty was shown to have a negative correlation with Salmonella outbreaks (R(2)=0.152, p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Geographic location besides socioeconomic status may contribute to the high rates of Salmonella outbreaks in MS. Understanding the geographical and economic relationship with infectious diseases will help to determine effective methods to reduce outbreaks within low socioeconomic status communities.