根据幼儿期测量结果预测未来体重状况：应用于千禧队列研究数据的一种新型纵向研究方法。
Predicting future weight status from measurements made in early childhood: a novel longitudinal approach applied to Millennium Cohort Study data.
作者信息
Mead E, Batterham A M, Atkinson G, Ells L J
机构信息
Health and Social Care Institute, Teesside University, Middlesbrough, UK.
出版信息
Nutr Diabetes. 2016 Mar 7;6(3):e200. doi: 10.1038/nutd.2016.3.
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: There are reports that childhood obesity tracks into later life. Nevertheless, some tracking statistics such as correlations do not quantify individual agreement, whereas others such as diagnostic test statistics can be difficult to translate into practice. We aimed to employ a novel analytic approach, based on ordinal logistic regression, to predict weight status of 11-year-old children from measurements at age 5 years.
SUBJECTS/METHODS: The UK 1990 growth references were used to generate clinical weight status categories of 12 076 children enrolled in the Millennium Cohort Study. Using ordinal regression, we derived the predicted probability (percent chances) of 11-year-old children becoming underweight, normal weight, overweight, obese and severely obese from their weight status category at age 5 years.
RESULTS
The chances of becoming obese (including severely obese) at age 11 years were 5.7% (95% confidence interval: 5.2 to 6.2%) for a normal-weight 5-year-old child and 32.3% (29.8 to 34.8%) for an overweight 5-year-old child. An obese 5-year-old child had a 68.1% (63.8 to 72.5%) chance of remaining obese at 11 years. Severely obese 5-year-old children had a 50.3% (43.1 to 57.4%) chance of remaining severely obese. There were no substantial differences between sexes. Nondeprived obese 5-year-old boys had a lower probability of remaining obese than deprived obese boys: -21.8% (-40.4 to -3.2%). This association was not observed in obese 5-year-old girls, in whom the nondeprived group had a probability of remaining obese 7% higher (-15.2 to 29.2%). The sex difference in this interaction of deprivation and baseline weight status was therefore -28.8% (-59.3 to 1.6%).
CONCLUSIONS
We have demonstrated that ordinal logistic regression can be an informative approach to predict the chances of a child changing to, or from, an unhealthy weight status. This approach is easy to interpret and could be applied to any longitudinal data set with an ordinal outcome.
背景/目的：有报告称儿童期肥胖会持续到成年期。然而，一些追踪统计数据，如相关性，并不能量化个体的一致性，而其他数据，如诊断测试统计数据，可能难以应用于实际。我们旨在采用一种基于有序逻辑回归的新型分析方法，根据5岁时的测量数据预测11岁儿童的体重状况。
受试者/方法：使用英国1990年生长参考标准，对参加千禧队列研究的12076名儿童的临床体重状况进行分类。通过有序回归，我们从5岁儿童的体重状况类别中得出了11岁儿童体重过轻、正常体重、超重、肥胖和重度肥胖的预测概率（百分比机会）。
结果
5岁时体重正常的儿童在11岁时肥胖（包括重度肥胖）的几率为5.7%（95%置信区间：5.2%至6.2%），5岁时超重的儿童这一几率为32.3%（29.8%至34.8%）。5岁时肥胖的儿童在11岁时仍肥胖的几率为68.1%（63.8%至72.5%）。5岁时重度肥胖的儿童在11岁时仍重度肥胖的几率为50.3%（43.1%至57.4%）。男女之间没有显著差异。非贫困肥胖5岁男孩保持肥胖的概率低于贫困肥胖男孩：-21.8%（-40.4%至-3.2%）。在肥胖5岁女孩中未观察到这种关联，其中非贫困组保持肥胖的概率高7%（-15.2%至29.2%）。因此，在这种贫困与基线体重状况的相互作用中，性别差异为-28.8%（-59.3%至1.6%）。
结论
我们已经证明，有序逻辑回归可以作为一种有用的方法来预测儿童体重变为不健康或从不健康变为健康的几率。这种方法易于解释，可应用于任何具有有序结果的纵向数据集。
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