Turra Cassio M, Renteria Elisenda, Guimarães Raquel
Department of Demography, Cedeplar, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Res Aging. 2016 Apr;38(3):283-98. doi: 10.1177/0164027515620245.
The last century in Brazil was witness to profound changes. Female life expectancy at birth increased from 34.6 years in 1910 to 77.26 years in 2010. At the same time, the educational composition of the population has changed dramatically. In the 1940s, only 25% of the children aged 5-14 years old were enrolled in school. Currently, nearly all children attend school. We examine the extent to which changes in the age-specific distribution of education have contributed to the decline in adult mortality among women in Brazil. Our analysis follows other applications in the literature to measure the mortality reduction that would occur if exposure to specific risk factors was changed at the counterfactual level. The effects are not trivial: Between 1960 and 2010, about 38% of the increase in life expectancy at age 30 can be attributed to changes in the educational composition of women. An additional 22% increase is expected until 2040.
上个世纪，巴西经历了深刻的变革。女性出生时的预期寿命从1910年的34.6岁增至2010年的77.26岁。与此同时，人口的教育构成也发生了巨大变化。在20世纪40年代，5至14岁的儿童中只有25%入学。目前，几乎所有儿童都上学。我们研究了教育的年龄别分布变化在多大程度上促成了巴西成年女性死亡率的下降。我们的分析遵循文献中的其他应用方法，以衡量如果在反事实水平上改变特定风险因素的暴露情况，死亡率将会降低多少。这些影响并非微不足道：在1960年至2010年期间，30岁时预期寿命增加的约38%可归因于女性教育构成的变化。预计到2040年还会再增加22%。
