Eugenio Fernando Coelho, dos Santos Alexandre Rosa, Fiedler Nilton Cesar, Ribeiro Guido Assunção, da Silva Aderbal Gomes, dos Santos Áureo Banhos, Paneto Greiciane Gaburro, Schettino Vitor Roberto
Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil.
In Memorian, Federal University of Viçosa/UFES, Graduate Program in Forest Science, Avenida P. H. Rolfs, s/n, Campus Universitário, 36570-000 Viçosa, MG, Brazil.
J Environ Manage. 2016 May 15;173:65-71. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.02.021. Epub 2016 Mar 11.
A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots.
