Walters Glenn D, Cohen Thomas H
Department of Criminal Justice.
Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
Law Hum Behav. 2016 Aug;40(4):411-9. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000185. Epub 2016 Mar 14.
The research question addressed in this study was whether an increase in criminal thought process predicted elevated risk for recidivism in a community sample of offenders. Using a 1-year change on the General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) as the independent variable, time until first arrest following a second administration of the GCT as the dependent variable, and age, criminal history, race, and ethnicity as control variables, the effect of an elevated GCT score on subsequent recidivism was tested in 35,147 male and 5,254 female federal probationers and supervised releases. Separate analyses were conducted on male and female participants. The results revealed that a rise in GCT was an incrementally valid predictor of time until first arrest in both men and women after controlling for age, criminal history, and race/ethnicity (variable-oriented analysis) and predicted the presence of a subsequent arrest during a 1-year follow-up in men regardless of initial GCT score and in women with a low initial GCT score (person-oriented analysis). Although the effect sizes were, for the most part, small, they nonetheless demonstrated both clinical and statistical significance, thereby supporting the supposition that criminal thought process, as measured by the PICTS GCT score, is a dynamic risk factor. (PsycINFO Database Record
本研究探讨的研究问题是，在社区罪犯样本中，犯罪思维过程的增加是否预示着再犯风险的升高。以《犯罪思维方式心理量表》（PICTS）的一般犯罪思维（GCT）得分的1年变化为自变量，第二次施测GCT后至首次被捕的时间为因变量，以年龄、犯罪史、种族和民族为控制变量，在35147名男性和5254名女性联邦缓刑犯及受监管释放人员中测试了GCT得分升高对后续再犯的影响。对男性和女性参与者分别进行了分析。结果显示，在控制了年龄、犯罪史和种族/民族后（变量导向分析），GCT的升高是男性和女性首次被捕时间的递增有效预测指标，并且在男性中，无论初始GCT得分如何，以及在初始GCT得分较低的女性中，GCT升高都能预测在1年随访期间是否会再次被捕（个体导向分析）。虽然效应大小在很大程度上较小，但它们仍具有临床和统计学意义，从而支持了这样一种假设，即通过PICTS GCT得分衡量的犯罪思维过程是一个动态风险因素。（《心理学文摘数据库记录》
