Sebastiani Paola, Andersen Stacy L, McIntosh Avery I, Nussbaum Lisa, Stevenson Meredith D, Pierce Leslie, Xia Samantha, Salance Kelly, Perls Thomas T
Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston.
New England Centenarian Study, Geriatrics Section, Department of Medicine, Boston Medical Center, Boston University School of Medicine.
N Am Actuar J. 2016 Jan 1;20(1):57-64. doi: 10.1080/10920277.2015.1061946. Epub 2015 Oct 7.
One of the most glaring deficiencies in the current assessment of mortality risk is the lack of information concerning the impact of familial longevity. In this work, we update estimates of sibling relative risk of living to extreme ages using data from more than 1,700 sibships, and we begin to examine the trend for heritability for different birth-year cohorts. We also build a network model that can be used to compute the increased chance for exceptional longevity of a subject, conditional on his family history of longevity. The network includes familial longevity from three generations and can be used to understand the effects of paternal and maternal longevity on an individual's chance to live to an extreme age.
当前死亡率风险评估中最明显的缺陷之一是缺乏有关家族长寿影响的信息。在这项研究中，我们使用来自1700多个同胞组的数据更新了活到极高年龄的兄弟姐妹相对风险的估计值，并开始研究不同出生队列的遗传趋势。我们还构建了一个网络模型，该模型可用于根据个体的家族长寿史计算其超长寿命增加的可能性。该网络包括三代人的家族长寿情况，可用于了解父母长寿对个体活到极高年龄机会的影响。
