Clarke R V, Jones P R
School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers, State University of New Jersey, Newark 17102.
Soc Sci Med. 1989;28(8):805-9. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(89)90109-3.
During the 25 years between 1959 and 1984, the suicide rate in the United States increased from 10.5/100,000 to 12.4/100,000. The increase was confined to those suicides using a firearm, which had reached 58.5% of the total by the end of the period. At the same time, there was a marked increase in the household ownership of handguns (but not of shotguns and rifles). The present study investigates whether the increase in suicide might be due to the increase in the ownership of handguns. Regression analyses showed a strong relationship between handgun ownership and the rate of gun suicides, but not between handgun ownership and the overall rate of suicide. These results support the hypothesis that the rise in handguns has led to an increase in gun suicides, but, they do not permit a choice between two further competing hypotheses: (i) that more people are now committing suicide because there are more handguns available or, (ii) that people who would otherwise have killed themselves in some different way are now using guns. Because of the potential implications for prevention, further study of these issues is needed.
在1959年至1984年的25年间,美国的自杀率从每10万人中有10.5人上升至每10万人中有12.4人。这种上升仅限于使用枪支自杀的情况,到该时期末,此类自杀已占自杀总数的58.5%。与此同时,家庭中手枪(而非猎枪和步枪)的拥有量显著增加。本研究调查自杀率的上升是否可能归因于手枪拥有量的增加。回归分析表明,手枪拥有量与枪支自杀率之间存在密切关系,但与总体自杀率之间不存在这种关系。这些结果支持了这样一种假设,即手枪数量的增加导致了枪支自杀率的上升,但是,它们无法在另外两种相互竞争的假设之间做出选择:(i)现在有更多人自杀是因为有更多手枪可供使用,或者,(ii)那些原本会以某种其他方式自杀的人现在使用了枪支。鉴于对预防工作的潜在影响,需要对这些问题进行进一步研究。