Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.
Department of Biology, Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610, Wilrijk, Belgium.
Glob Chang Biol. 2016 Nov;22(11):3702-3711. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13311. Epub 2016 May 12.
The timing of the end of the vegetation growing season (EOS) plays a key role in terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycles. Autumn phenology is, however, still poorly understood, and previous studies generally focused on few species or were very limited in scale. In this study, we applied four methods to extract EOS dates from NDVI records between 1982 and 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere, and determined the temporal correlations between EOS and environmental factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and insolation), as well as the correlation between spring and autumn phenology, using partial correlation analyses. Overall, we observed a trend toward later EOS in ~70% of the pixels in Northern Hemisphere, with a mean rate of 0.18 ± 0.38 days yr . Warming preseason temperature was positively associated with the rate of EOS in most of our study area, except for arid/semi-arid regions, where the precipitation sum played a dominant positive role. Interestingly, increased preseason insolation sum might also lead to a later date of EOS. In addition to the climatic effects on EOS, we found an influence of spring vegetation green-up dates on EOS, albeit biome dependent. Our study, therefore, suggests that both environmental factors and spring phenology should be included in the modeling of EOS to improve the predictions of autumn phenology as well as our understanding of the global carbon and nutrient balances.
植被生长季结束时间（EOS）在陆地生态系统碳和养分循环中起着关键作用。然而，秋季物候仍然知之甚少，以前的研究通常集中在少数几个物种上，或者规模非常有限。在这项研究中，我们应用了四种方法从 1982 年至 2011 年的 NDVI 记录中提取北半球 EOS 日期，并使用偏相关分析确定 EOS 与环境因素（即温度、降水和光照）之间的时间相关性，以及春季和秋季物候之间的相关性。总体而言，我们观察到北半球约 70%的像素的 EOS 呈推迟趋势，平均速率为 0.18 ± 0.38 天 yr-1。 preseason 温度升高与我们研究区域大部分地区的 EOS 速率呈正相关，除了干旱/半干旱地区，那里的降水总和起着主导的正作用。有趣的是， preseason 光照总辐射量的增加也可能导致 EOS 日期推迟。除了气候对 EOS 的影响外，我们还发现春季植被返青日期对 EOS 有影响，尽管与生物群落有关。因此，我们的研究表明，EOS 的建模应该包括环境因素和春季物候，以提高秋季物候的预测，并更好地了解全球碳和养分平衡。
