可切除性肝门部胆管癌患者预后列线图的建立与验证
Establishment and validation of a prognostic nomogram for patients with resectable perihilar cholangiocarcinoma.
作者信息
Chen Peizhan, Li Bin, Zhu Yan, Chen Wei, Liu Xin, Li Mian, Duan Xiaohua, Yi Bin, Wang Jinghan, Liu Chen, Luo Xiangji, Li Xiaoguang, Li Jingquan, Liang Lijian, Yin Xiaoyu, Wang Hui, Jiang Xiaoqing
机构信息
Key Laboratory of Food Safety Research, Institute for Nutritional Sciences, Shanghai Institutes for Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, 200031, P. R. China.
Biliary Tract Surgery Department I, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Secondary Military Medical University, Shanghai, 200433, P. R. China.
出版信息
Oncotarget. 2016 Jun 14;7(24):37319-37330. doi: 10.18632/oncotarget.9104.
As the conventional staging systems have poor prognosis prediction ability for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA), we established and validated an effective prognostic nomogram for pCCA patients based on their personal and tumor characteristics. A total of 235 patients who received curative intent resections at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital from 2000 to 2009 were recruited as the primary training cohort. Age, preoperative CA19-9 levels, portal vein involvement, hepatic artery invasion, lymph node metastases, and surgical treatment outcomes (R0 or R1/2) were independent prognostic factors for pCCA patients in the primary cohort as suggested by the multivariate analyses and these were included in the established nomogram. The calibration curve showed good agreement between overall survival probability of pCCA patients for the nomogram predictions and the actual observations and the concordance index (C-index) was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61-0.71). The C-index values and time-dependent ROC tests suggested that the nomogram is superior to the conventional staging systems including the Bismuth-Corlette, Gazzaniga, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM 7th edition, and Mayo Clinic. The nomogram also performed better than the traditional staging system in the internal cohort with 93 pCCA patients from the same institution and an external validation cohort including 84 pCCA patients from another institution in predicting the overall survival of the pCCA patients as suggested by the C-index values and the time-dependent ROC tests. In summary, the proposed nomogram has superior predictive accuracy of prognosis for resectable pCCA patients.
由于传统分期系统对肝门部胆管癌(pCCA)患者的预后预测能力较差,我们基于pCCA患者的个人特征和肿瘤特征建立并验证了一种有效的预后列线图。2000年至2009年在东方肝胆外科医院接受根治性切除的235例患者被纳入主要训练队列。多因素分析表明,年龄、术前CA19-9水平、门静脉受累、肝动脉侵犯、淋巴结转移和手术治疗结果(R0或R1/2)是主要队列中pCCA患者的独立预后因素,这些因素被纳入所建立的列线图。校准曲线显示,列线图预测的pCCA患者总生存概率与实际观察结果之间具有良好的一致性,一致性指数(C指数)为0.68(95%CI,0.61-0.71)。C指数值和时间依赖性ROC检验表明,该列线图优于包括Bismuth-Corlette、Gazzaniga、纪念斯隆凯特琳癌症中心(MSKCC)、美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)第7版TNM分期以及梅奥诊所在内的传统分期系统。C指数值和时间依赖性ROC检验表明,在预测pCCA患者总生存方面,该列线图在来自同一机构的93例pCCA患者的内部队列以及包括来自另一机构的84例pCCA患者的外部验证队列中也比传统分期系统表现更好。总之,所提出的列线图对可切除pCCA患者的预后具有更高的预测准确性。