Silva Amanda Priscila de Santana Cabral, Souza Wayner Vieira de, Albuquerque Maria de Fátima Pessoa Militão de
Núcleo de Estudos em Saúde Coletiva, Centro de Pesquisas Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2016 Apr;49(2):211-21. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0065-2016.
INTRODUCTION This study presents two decades of epidemiological data on tuberculosis (TB), in order to understanding the disease profile and its spatiotemporal dynamics. METHODS This descriptive study was performed in the City of Olinda/Pernambuco, Brazil, from 1991-2010, and it analyzed new patients with TB living in the city. We used the χ²-test with a p-value <0.05 to identify differences in trends. Incidence and cluster distribution were identified using spatial scan statistics. RESULTS In total, 6202 new cases were recorded during the two decades. The highest incidence occurred in 1995 (110 cases/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2009 (65 cases/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-1.44; R²=0.43; p=0.0018). The highest mortality occurred in 1998 (16 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2008 (5 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-0.19; R²=0.17; p=0.07). There was a male predominance (65%), and ages ranged from 20-49 years (65%). There was a substantial increase in the number of patients that were cured after treatment (60% to 67%; p<0.001) as well as those tested for HIV (1.9% to 58.5%; p<0.001). During the first decade, clusters with p-values <0.05 included 29% of the total notified cases, and in the second decade, that percentage was 12%. CONCLUSIONS We observed a decreasing trend in incidence, which was significant, and mortality rates, which was not significant. The increased number of laboratory tests performed reflects advances in surveillance, and a reduction in the proportion of cases in primary clusters suggests, among other things, that the disease is spreading across the region.
引言 本研究呈现了二十年的结核病流行病学数据，以便了解该疾病的概况及其时空动态。方法 这项描述性研究于1991年至2010年在巴西伯南布哥州奥林达市进行，分析对象为居住在该市的结核病新患者。我们使用p值<0.05的χ²检验来确定趋势差异。发病率和聚集分布通过空间扫描统计来确定。结果 在这二十年中，共记录了6202例新病例。发病率最高出现在1995年（110例/10万居民），最低出现在2009年（65例/10万居民）（β=-1.44；R²=0.43；p=0.0018）。死亡率最高出现在1998年（16例/10万居民），最低出现在2008年（5例/10万居民）（β=-0.19；R²=0.17；p=0.07）。男性占主导（65%），年龄范围为20至49岁（65%）。治疗后治愈的患者数量（从60%增至67%；p<0.001）以及接受HIV检测的患者数量（从1.9%增至58.5%；p<0.001）都有显著增加。在第一个十年中，p值<0.05的聚集区包含了29%的通报病例，在第二个十年中，这一比例为12%。结论 我们观察到发病率呈下降趋势，这一趋势显著，而死亡率呈下降趋势，但不显著。所进行的实验室检测数量增加反映了监测方面的进步，主要聚集区病例比例的降低表明该疾病正在该地区扩散等情况。
