Birds of a feather: using species assemblages to assess vulnerability to extinction.

Estimating extinction vulnerability for a large number of species presents significant challenges for researchers, but is of high importance considering the large number of species that are currently unassessed. We present a method using a type of artificial neural network (self organizing map; SOM), which utilizes the co-occurrence patterns of species to estimate each species' vulnerability to extinction. We use this method on Australian bird assemblages and compare the SOM-generated rankings for vulnerability with assessments from the IUCN Red List for those species in which populations have actually been estimated. For species that have had their populations estimated, the SOM performed well in distinguishing those species ranked of least concern by IUCN from those species in one of the other IUCN categories. Further, 19 species that were identified as highly vulnerable by the SOM analysis have never had their populations estimated and have been ranked by the IUCN of least concern. We show how the SOM can identify spatial variation in vulnerability for a species, and identify those regions in Australia in which the resident species have the greatest levels of vulnerability (central Australia). We conclude that the SOM provides a useful tool for researchers and agencies dealing with conservation strategies focused on large numbers of species and we urge a more detailed assessment of the 19 bird species identified by this analysis as vulnerable to extinction.