Brown University, Environmental Change Initiative, Box 1951, Providence, RI 02912.
Brown University, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Box G-W, Providence, RI 02912.
Conserv Biol. 2013 Dec;27(6):1378-1388. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12143. Epub 2013 Sep 4.
At local scales, infectious disease is a common driver of population declines, but globally it is an infrequent contributor to species extinction and endangerment. For species at risk of extinction from disease important questions remain unanswered, including when does disease become a threat to species and does it co-occur, predictably, with other threats? Using newly compiled data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, we examined the relative role and co-occurrence of threats associated with amphibians, birds, and mammals at 6 levels of extinction risk (i.e., Red List status categories: least concern, near threatened, vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered, and extinct in the wild/extinct). We tested the null hypothesis that the proportion of species threatened by disease is the same in all 6 Red List status categories. Our approach revealed a new method for determining when disease most frequently threatens species at risk of extinction. The proportion of species threatened by disease varied significantly between IUCN status categories and linearly increased for amphibians, birds, and all species combined as these taxa move from move from least concern to critically endangered. Disease was infrequently the single contributing threat. However, when a species was negatively affected by a major threat other than disease (e.g., invasive species, land-use change) that species was more likely to be simultaneously threatened by disease than species that had no other threats. Potential drivers of these trends include ecological factors, clustering of phylogenetically related species in Red List status categories, discovery bias among species at greater risk of extinction, and availability of data. We echo earlier calls for baseline data on the presence of parasites and pathogens in species when they show the first signs of extinction risk and arguably before. La Amenaza de Enfermedades Incrementa a Medida que las Especies se Aproximan a la Extinción.
在局部尺度上,传染病是导致种群减少的常见因素,但在全球范围内,传染病很少导致物种灭绝和濒危。对于因疾病而面临灭绝风险的物种,仍有许多重要问题尚未得到解答,包括疾病何时成为物种的威胁,以及它是否与其他威胁同时发生,是否可预测?利用国际自然保护联盟(IUCN)红色名录中最新汇编的数据,我们检查了与处于灭绝风险的两栖动物、鸟类和哺乳动物相关的威胁的相对作用和共同发生情况,这些威胁分为 6 个灭绝风险级别(即红色名录状态类别:最不受关注、近危、易危、濒危、极危和野外灭绝/灭绝)。我们检验了疾病威胁物种的比例在所有 6 个红色名录状态类别中相同的零假设。我们的方法揭示了一种确定疾病何时最频繁威胁濒临灭绝的物种的新方法。受疾病威胁的物种比例在 IUCN 状态类别之间存在显著差异,对于两栖动物、鸟类和所有物种组合,随着这些类群从最不受关注状态向极危状态移动,这一比例呈线性增加。疾病很少是唯一的致病因素。然而,当一个物种受到除疾病以外的主要威胁(如入侵物种、土地利用变化)的负面影响时,该物种同时受到疾病威胁的可能性比没有其他威胁的物种更高。这些趋势的潜在驱动因素包括生态因素、红色名录状态类别中系统发育相关物种的聚类、灭绝风险较高的物种的发现偏差以及数据的可用性。我们回应了早些时候的呼吁,即在物种出现灭绝风险的最初迹象时,就应记录寄生虫和病原体的存在,也许在此之前就应记录。疾病威胁随着物种接近灭绝而增加。