利用大数据提高健康意识宣传活动的效果：对“大美国戒烟日”的新评估。
Leveraging Big Data to Improve Health Awareness Campaigns: A Novel Evaluation of the Great American Smokeout.
机构信息
Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University Chula Vista, CA United States.
American Cancer Society Behavioral Research Center Atlanta, GA United States.
出版信息
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2016 Mar 31;2(1):e16. doi: 10.2196/publichealth.5304. eCollection 2016 Jan-Jun.
BACKGROUND
Awareness campaigns are ubiquitous, but little is known about their potential effectiveness because traditional evaluations are often unfeasible. For 40 years, the "Great American Smokeout" (GASO) has encouraged media coverage and popular engagement with smoking cessation on the third Thursday of November as the nation's longest running awareness campaign.
OBJECTIVE
We proposed a novel evaluation framework for assessing awareness campaigns using the GASO as a case study by observing cessation-related news reports and Twitter postings, and cessation-related help seeking via Google, Wikipedia, and government-sponsored quitlines.
METHODS
Time trends (2009-2014) were analyzed using a quasi-experimental design to isolate spikes during the GASO by comparing observed outcomes on the GASO day with the simulated counterfactual had the GASO not occurred.
RESULTS
Cessation-related news typically increased by 61% (95% CI 35-87) and tweets by 13% (95% CI -21 to 48) during the GASO compared with what was expected had the GASO not occurred. Cessation-related Google searches increased by 25% (95% CI 10-40), Wikipedia page visits by 22% (95% CI -26 to 67), and quitline calls by 42% (95% CI 19-64). Cessation-related news media positively coincided with cessation tweets, Internet searches, and Wikipedia visits; for example, a 50% increase in news for any year predicted a 28% (95% CI -2 to 59) increase in tweets for the same year. Increases on the day of the GASO rivaled about two-thirds of a typical New Year's Day-the day that is assumed to see the greatest increases in cessation-related activity. In practical terms, there were about 61,000 more instances of help seeking on Google, Wikipedia, or quitlines on GASO each year than would normally be expected.
CONCLUSIONS
These findings provide actionable intelligence to improve the GASO and model how to rapidly, cost-effectively, and efficiently evaluate hundreds of awareness campaigns, nearly all for the first time.
背景
意识宣传活动无处不在，但由于传统评估往往不可行，因此人们对其潜在效果知之甚少。四十年来，“美国大戒烟日”（Great American Smokeout，简称 GASO）一直鼓励媒体报道和公众参与戒烟活动，这是美国持续时间最长的宣传活动。
目的
我们提出了一种新的评估框架，通过观察与戒烟相关的新闻报道和 Twitter 帖子，以及通过谷歌、维基百科和政府赞助的戒烟热线寻求戒烟帮助的情况，来评估 GASO 等意识宣传活动。
方法
使用准实验设计分析 2009 年至 2014 年的时间趋势，通过比较 GASO 当天的观察结果与假设 GASO 没有发生时的模拟反事实结果，来隔离 GASO 期间的高峰。
结果
与假设 GASO 没有发生时相比，GASO 期间与戒烟相关的新闻报道通常增加 61%（95%CI 35-87），Twitter 帖子增加 13%（95%CI -21 至 48）。与戒烟相关的谷歌搜索增加 25%（95%CI 10-40），维基百科页面访问量增加 22%（95%CI -26 至 67），戒烟热线呼叫增加 42%（95%CI 19-64）。与戒烟相关的新闻媒体与戒烟推文、互联网搜索和维基百科访问量呈正相关；例如，当年新闻报道增加 50%，则同年推文增加 28%（95%CI -2 至 59）。在 GASO 当天的增幅与假定与戒烟相关的活动最大的元旦日相当。实际上，每年通过谷歌、维基百科或戒烟热线寻求帮助的情况大约增加了 61,000 次，比通常预期的要多。
结论
这些发现为改进 GASO 提供了可操作的情报，并为如何快速、经济高效且有效地评估数百个意识宣传活动提供了模型，这些活动几乎都是首次进行评估。
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