State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; The Beijing Innovation Center for Engineering Science and Advanced Technology, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Oct 15;568:1253-1262. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.165. Epub 2016 Jun 5.
Estimates of mortality attributable to air pollution in China showed large differences among various studies, mainly arising from differences in exposure assessments and choice of the concentration-response function. The Chinese national monitoring network recently has included direct measurements of PM2.5 (particulates with aerodynamic diameter≤2.5μm), providing a potentially more reliable exposure assessment. We estimated adult premature mortalities due to PM2.5 across China in 2013 and mortality benefits for scenarios in which China meets the World Health Organization (WHO) Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) and three interim targets (ITs) for PM2.5. Attributable adult mortalities were estimated with assimilated spatial PM2.5 concentrations across China based on direct PM2.5 measurements from 506 PM2.5 monitoring sites and a regional air quality model, and using the integrated exposure-response model. Our results show that in China, 83% of the population lived in areas where PM2.5 concentrations exceeded the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard of 35μgm(-3). Premature mortalities attributed to PM2.5 nationwide were 1.37 million in total, and 0.69, 0.38, 0.13, and 0.17 million for stroke, ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respectively. High population density areas exhibited the highest health risks attributed to air pollution. The mortality benefits will be 23%, 39%, 66%, and 83% of the total present premature mortalities (1.37 million mortalities) when PM2.5 concentrations in China meet the WHO IT-1, IT-2, IT-3, and AQG, respectively. Our study shows that integrating PM2.5 concentrations based on the national monitoring network with the regional air quality model provides an advanced exposure estimate method with potentials to further improve the accuracy for mortality estimate; much higher health benefits could be achieved if China adopted more stringent WHO guidelines for PM2.5.
中国空气污染导致的死亡率估计值在不同研究中存在较大差异，主要原因在于暴露评估和浓度-反应函数的选择不同。中国国家监测网络最近已经包括了对 PM2.5（空气动力学直径≤2.5μm 的颗粒物）的直接测量，这为更可靠的暴露评估提供了可能。我们估计了 2013 年中国成年人因 PM2.5 导致的过早死亡人数，以及在中国达到世界卫生组织（WHO）空气质量指南（AQG）和 PM2.5 的三个临时目标（ITs）的情况下的死亡人数。归因于成人死亡人数是根据直接 PM2.5 测量结果，在中国各地采用综合暴露反应模型，利用 PM2.5 监测站点和区域空气质量模型的 PM2.5 浓度同化空间浓度来估计。我们的研究结果表明，在中国，83%的人口生活在 PM2.5 浓度超过中国环境空气质量标准（35μg/m3）的地区。全国范围内，PM2.5 导致的过早死亡人数总计为 137 万人，其中中风、缺血性心脏病、肺癌和慢性阻塞性肺疾病分别为 0.69、0.38、0.13 和 0.17 万人。人口密度高的地区表现出的空气污染健康风险最高。当中国的 PM2.5 浓度分别达到 WHO IT-1、IT-2、IT-3 和 AQG 时，死亡率的降低幅度将分别占总过早死亡率（137 万人）的 23%、39%、66%和 83%。本研究表明，利用全国监测网络的 PM2.5 浓度与区域空气质量模型相结合，提供了一种先进的暴露评估方法，具有进一步提高死亡率估计准确性的潜力；如果中国对 PM2.5 采用更严格的 WHO 指南，将会获得更高的健康效益。
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