Liu Jiemei, Brandt Jørgen, Christensen Jesper H, Ye Zhuyun, Chen Tingsen, Dong Shikui, Geels Camilla, Yuan Yuan, Nenes Athanasios, Im Ulas
Key Laboratory of Aerospace Thermophysics, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, 92 West Dazhi Street, Harbin, 150001 China.
Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science/Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Frederiksborgvej 399, Roskilde, Denmark.
NPJ Clean Air. 2025;1(1):7. doi: 10.1038/s44407-025-00006-9. Epub 2025 Apr 28.
This study estimated PM (atmospheric fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µg) concentrations and the health burden in mainland China from 2010 to 2049 under two scenarios: Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions. We assess premature deaths from PM exposure, examining sources like coal combustion, biomass burning, industry, and tailpipe emission from on-road transport. Results show that central and eastern China account for 75% of PM-related deaths, with biomass burning (40%) and industry (34%) as primary contributors. Under the Current Legistaions and Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions scenarios, PM-related premature deaths are projected to decrease by 43% and 80% (linear EVA) and by 28% increase and 40% decrease (nonlinear EVA) from 2010 to 2049. Assuming a linear relationship, the Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions scenario estimates that reduced PM exposure could avoid 1.55 million premature deaths annually by 2049 compared to 2010, primarily from coal combustion for heating, biomass burning, industry, and tailpipe emission from on-road transport.
本研究估计了2010年至2049年中国大陆在两种情景下的细颗粒物（空气动力学直径≤2.5微米的大气细颗粒物）浓度及健康负担：现行法规情景和最大技术可行减排情景。我们评估了因接触细颗粒物导致的过早死亡情况，研究了煤炭燃烧、生物质燃烧、工业以及道路运输尾气排放等来源。结果表明，中国中部和东部地区占与细颗粒物相关死亡人数的75%，其中生物质燃烧（40%）和工业（34%）是主要贡献因素。在现行法规情景和最大技术可行减排情景下，预计从2010年到2049年，与细颗粒物相关的过早死亡人数将分别下降43%和80%（线性EVA），以及下降28%（增长）和40%（下降）（非线性EVA）。假设存在线性关系，最大技术可行减排情景估计，到2049年，与2010年相比，因细颗粒物暴露减少每年可避免155万例过早死亡，主要来自取暖用煤燃烧、生物质燃烧、工业以及道路运输尾气排放。
