Center for Environmental Science and Engineering (CESE), Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India.
Center for Environmental Science and Engineering (CESE), Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400076, India; Urban Environmental Management, School of Environment Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jan 15;612:683-693. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.254. Epub 2017 Sep 1.
In past decade of rapid industrial development and urbanization, China has witnessed increasingly persistent severe haze and smog episodes, posing serious health hazards to the Chinese population, especially in densely populated cities. Quantification of health impacts attributable to PM (particulates with aerodynamic diameter≤2.5μm) has important policy implications to tackle air pollution. The Chinese national monitoring network has recently included direct measurements of ground level PM, providing a potentially more reliable source for exposure assessment. This study reports PM-related long-term mortality of year 2015 in 161 cities of nine regions across China using integrated exposure risk (IER) model for PM exposure-response functions (ERF). It further provides an estimate of the potential health benefits by year 2020 with a realization of the goals of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) and the three interim targets (ITs) and Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) for PM by the World Health Organization (WHO). PM-related premature mortality in 161 cities was 652 thousand, about 6.92% of total deaths in China during year 2015. Among all premature deaths, contributions of cerebrovascular disease (stroke), ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer (LC) and acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) were 51.70, 26.26, 11.77, 9.45 and 0.82%, respectively. The premature mortality in densely populated cities is very high, such as Tianjin (12,533/year), Beijing (18,817/year), Baoding (10,932/year), Shanghai (18,679/year), Chongqing (23,561/year), Chengdu (11,809/year), Harbin (9037/year) and Linyi (9141/year). The potential health benefits will be 4.4, 16.2, 34.5, 63.6 and 81.5% of the total present premature mortality when PM concentrations in China meet the APPCAP, WHO IT-1, IT-2, IT-3 and AQG respectively, by the year 2020. In the current situation, by the end of year 2030, even if Chines government fulfills its own target to meet national ambient air quality standard of PM (35μg/m), total premature mortality attributable to PM will be 574 thousand across 161 cities. The present methodology will greatly help policy makers and pollution control authorities to further analyze cost and benefits of air pollution management programs in China.
在过去的十年中，随着工业化和城市化进程的快速发展，中国出现了越来越多的持续性严重雾霾天气，给中国民众，尤其是人口密集城市的民众带来了严重的健康危害。量化与 PM（空气动力学直径≤2.5μm 的颗粒物）有关的健康影响对于解决空气污染问题具有重要的政策意义。中国国家监测网络最近已经包括了对地面 PM 的直接测量，为暴露评估提供了一个更可靠的潜在来源。本研究采用综合暴露风险（IER）模型对 PM 暴露-反应函数（ERF）进行了分析，报告了 2015 年中国九个地区 161 个城市的 PM 相关长期死亡率。该研究进一步预测了到 2020 年的潜在健康效益，如果要实现《大气污染防治行动计划》（APPCAP）和世界卫生组织（WHO）的三个中期目标（ITs）以及《空气质量准则》（AQG）中 PM 的目标，本研究将有助于政策制定者和污染控制当局进一步分析中国空气污染管理计划的成本和效益。在中国 161 个城市，与 PM 相关的过早死亡率为 65.2 万，约占 2015 年中国总死亡人数的 6.92%。在所有过早死亡中，脑血管病（中风）、缺血性心脏病（IHD）、慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）、肺癌（LC）和急性下呼吸道感染（ALRIs）的贡献分别为 51.70%、26.26%、11.77%、9.45%和 0.82%。人口密集城市的过早死亡率非常高，如天津（12533/年）、北京（18817/年）、保定（10932/年）、上海（18679/年）、重庆（23561/年）、成都（11809/年）、哈尔滨（9037/年）和临沂（9141/年）。到 2020 年，如果中国的 PM 浓度分别达到《大气污染防治行动计划》、世界卫生组织 IT-1、IT-2、IT-3 和《空气质量准则》的标准，那么与 PM 相关的潜在健康效益将分别占当前总过早死亡率的 4.4%、16.2%、34.5%、63.6%和 81.5%。在当前情况下，即使到 2030 年底，中国政府实现了其达到国家空气质量标准（PM35μg/m）的目标，与 PM 相关的总过早死亡率仍将达到 161 个城市的 57.4 万。本方法将极大地帮助政策制定者和污染控制当局进一步分析中国空气污染管理计划的成本和效益。
