School of Physics, University of Hyderabad, Central Univ. PO, Gachi Bowli, Hyderabad 500 046, India.
School of Natural Sciences &Engineering, National Institute of Advanced Studies (N.I.A.S.), Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore - 560012, India.
Sci Rep. 2016 Jun 13;6:27845. doi: 10.1038/srep27845.
Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8-9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years - the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.
周期性爆发的落叶松扁叶蜂种群（以及由此引发的大规模森林落叶）在阿尔卑斯山几个世纪以来都有记录，并且以其显著的规律性而闻名。但自 1981 年以来，这种情况就明显消失了。另一方面，落叶松扁叶蜂在喀尔巴阡塔特拉山脉的落叶松中历来是未知的。为了解决这个难题，我们在这里提出了一个模型，该模型包括气候的影响，可以解释扁叶蜂周期的 8-9 年周期性以及由此产生的变化，以及周期的缺失。我们成功地捕捉到了观察到的爆发相对频率趋势，重现了观察到的主要周期性。我们认为，1981 年周期的明显崩溃是由于转折点后气候条件的变化造成的，并提出了周期为 40 年的循环重现——下一次爆发可能发生在 2021 年。我们的模型还预测了更长的周期。
