Guo Xiurui, Fu Liwei, Ji Muse, Lang Jianlei, Chen Dongsheng, Cheng Shuiyuan
College of Environmental & Energy Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China; Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
Environ Pollut. 2016 Sep;216:470-479. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2016.05.082. Epub 2016 Jun 17.
Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020.
机动车排放日益成为影响中国城市空气质量的重要因素之一。对于政策制定者而言，鉴于已采取相关污染物减排措施，说明情况是必要且有益的。本文预测了2011 - 2020年京津冀（BTH）地区在不同控制策略和政策下常规污染物（PM10、氮氧化物、一氧化碳、碳氢化合物）的减排潜力。设计了基线情景和5种控制情景，呈现了当前和未来不同的车辆排放控制措施。基于冈珀茨模型预测了不同类型车辆的未来保有量，并估算了车辆行驶里程。之后，利用排放因子和活动水平数据估算2011 - 2020年不同情景下的减排量。结果表明，京津冀地区的车辆保有量将持续增长，尤其是在天津和河北。比较不同情景，排放标准更新情景将实现大幅减排，且所有污染物的减排量将持续上升，淘汰高排放车辆情景在短期内比长期能更有效地减少排放，尤其是在北京。由于现有经济和技术水平的限制，推广新能源汽车的减排效果并不显著，特别是考虑到其全生命周期影响。北京的人口调控情景的减排效果不可忽视，对于PM10、一氧化碳和碳氢化合物的减排量将持续上升，但不包括氮氧化物。在考虑所有控制措施的综合情景下，将实现最大的减排潜力，这意味着与2020年京津冀地区的基准情景相比，PM10、氮氧化物、一氧化碳、碳氢化合物的排放量将分别减少56%、59%、48%、52%。
