Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's A1B 3X5, Canada.
Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's A1B 3X5, Canada.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2016 Oct 15;111(1-2):347-353. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2016.06.088. Epub 2016 Jul 2.
Improved understanding of ecological risk associated with Arctic shipping would help advance effective oil spill prevention, control, and mitigation strategies. Ecological risk assessment involves analysis of a release (oil), its fate, and dispersion, and the exposure and intake of the contaminant to different receptors. Exposure analysis is a key step of the detailed ecological risk assessment, which involves the evaluation of the concentration and persistence of released pollutants in the media of contact. In the present study, a multimedia fate and transport model is presented, which is developed using a fugacity-based approach. This model considers four media: air, water, sediment, and ice. The output of the model is the concentration of oil (surrogate hydrocarbons-naphthalene) in these four media, which constitutes the potential exposure to receptors. The concentration profiles can subsequently be used to estimate ecological risk thereby providing guidance to policies for Arctic shipping operations, ship design, and ecological response measures.
提高对北极航运相关生态风险的认识将有助于推进有效的石油泄漏预防、控制和缓解策略。生态风险评估涉及对释放物（石油）、其命运和分散以及污染物对不同受体的暴露和摄入的分析。暴露分析是详细生态风险评估的关键步骤，其中包括评估接触介质中释放污染物的浓度和持久性。在本研究中，提出了一种基于逸度的多介质命运和传输模型。该模型考虑了四种介质：空气、水、沉积物和冰。模型的输出是这四种介质中石油（替代烃-萘）的浓度，这构成了对受体的潜在暴露。随后可以使用浓度分布来估计生态风险，从而为北极航运作业、船舶设计和生态响应措施的政策提供指导。
