Dynamic fugacity model for accidental oil release during Arctic shipping.

Improved understanding of ecological risk associated with Arctic shipping would help advance effective oil spill prevention, control, and mitigation strategies. Ecological risk assessment involves analysis of a release (oil), its fate, and dispersion, and the exposure and intake of the contaminant to different receptors. Exposure analysis is a key step of the detailed ecological risk assessment, which involves the evaluation of the concentration and persistence of released pollutants in the media of contact. In the present study, a multimedia fate and transport model is presented, which is developed using a fugacity-based approach. This model considers four media: air, water, sediment, and ice. The output of the model is the concentration of oil (surrogate hydrocarbons-naphthalene) in these four media, which constitutes the potential exposure to receptors. The concentration profiles can subsequently be used to estimate ecological risk thereby providing guidance to policies for Arctic shipping operations, ship design, and ecological response measures.