Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University, St John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada.
Centre for Risk, Integrity and Safety Engineering (C-RISE), Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University, St John's, NL A1B 3X5, Canada.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2020 Apr;153:111001. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2020.111001. Epub 2020 Feb 27.
The Arctic is an ecologically diverse area that is increasingly vulnerable to damages from oil spills associated with commercial vessels traversing newly open shipping lanes. The significance of such accidents on Arctic marine habitats and the potential for recovery can be examined using ecological risk assessment (ERA) coupled with a dynamic object-oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN). A DOOBN approach is useful to represent the probabilistic relationships inherent in the interactions between key events associated with an oil spill, including oil dispersion from the source, ice-oil slick interactions, seawater-oil slick formation, sedimentation, and exposures to different aquatic life. From such analysis, a probabilistic cost analysis can be performed to examine the theoretical cost of habitat services lost and restored. The application of an ERA-DOOBN model to assess oil spills in the Arctic is demonstrated using a case study. The utility of the model output for determining habitat restoration costs and developing policy guidelines for ecological response measures in the Arctic is also discussed.
北极是一个生态多样化的地区，越来越容易受到与商业船只穿越新开放航道有关的溢油事故的破坏。可以使用生态风险评估 (ERA) 结合动态面向对象贝叶斯网络 (DOOBN) 来检查此类事故对北极海洋生境的影响以及恢复的潜力。DOOBN 方法可用于表示与溢油相关的关键事件之间相互作用所固有的概率关系，包括从源头上的溢油扩散、冰油混合物相互作用、海水油膜形成、沉降以及暴露于不同水生生物。通过这种分析，可以进行概率成本分析，以检查失去和恢复的栖息地服务的理论成本。使用案例研究演示了将 ERA-DOOBN 模型应用于评估北极溢油事故的方法。还讨论了模型输出在确定栖息地恢复成本和制定北极生态响应措施政策指南方面的应用。
