Bancroft Betsy A, Lawler Joshua J, Schumaker Nathan H
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington; Present address: Departments of Biology and Environmental Studies Gonzaga University Spokane Washington.
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington.
Ecol Evol. 2016 Jun 8;6(13):4468-77. doi: 10.1002/ece3.2204. eCollection 2016 Jul.
Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.
预计气候变化和土地利用变化将是下个世纪生物多样性丧失的两大主要驱动因素。土地利用变化导致许多物种的栖息地大量丧失。同样，气候变化也影响了许多物种，导致其分布范围改变、物候变化以及相互作用改变。我们使用了一个空间明确、基于个体的模型，来探究土地利用变化和气候变化对濒危的红顶啄木鸟（Picoides borealis）种群的影响。我们通过多种情景对土地利用变化的影响进行建模，这些情景代表了本宁堡军事基地内部队新训练区域的不同空间布局。我们利用预测的由气候驱动的栖息地变化和繁殖产出变化，来探究气候变化的潜在影响。我们基于动态植被模型LPJ - GUESS的输出结果，总结了栖息地的潜在变化，该模型针对2100年之前的多种气候变化情景进行了运行。我们根据春季降水量与每次筑巢尝试成功育雏的平均数量之间的经验关系，预测了繁殖方面的潜在变化。正如我们研究中所模拟的那样，气候变化对红顶啄木鸟种群几乎没有影响。相反，模拟的土地利用变化影响到2100年时导致多达28对繁殖对的损失。然而，开发的模拟影响取决于开发发生的地点，如果将新的训练区域设置在质量较差的栖息地，这种影响是可以完全避免的。我们的结果表明，许多系统具有内在的灵活性，使得看似不相容的人类土地利用方式，如开发和保护行动能够并存。
