Walsh Eric S, Vierling Kerri T, Strand Eva, Bartowitz Kristina, Hudiburg Tara W
Forest, Rangeland, and Fire Sciences Department University of Idaho Moscow Idaho.
Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho.
Ecol Evol. 2019 Feb 5;9(4):2305-2319. doi: 10.1002/ece3.4876. eCollection 2019 Feb.
The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate-induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate-driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape-scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate-woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate-induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad-scale climate-woodpecker models results in model-data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate-woodpecker-forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate-driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.
预计森林生态系统的结构和组成会随着降水、温度、火灾、碳减排策略和生物干扰等气候引发的变化而改变。这些因素可能会对生物多样性产生影响。然而，用于预测森林结构和组成变化的气候驱动森林生态系统模型并未与用于预测生物多样性变化的模型相结合。我们提议将啄木鸟的反应（生物多样性指标）与森林生态系统模型相结合。啄木鸟是森林生态系统动态变化的良好指示物种，因为它们在生态上受到景观尺度森林组成部分的限制，如组成、结构、干扰状况和管理活动。此外，它们与森林鸟类群落多样性相关。在本研究中，我们探索将啄木鸟和森林生态系统气候模型相结合。我们回顾了气候 - 啄木鸟模型，并比较了预测反应与观测到的气候引发变化。我们识别观测和预测反应之间的不一致之处，探究建模原因，并确定与解决这些不一致问题相关的可整合模型。我们发现，在15个评估物种中，有7个物种的短期预测与观测趋势不一致。由于与啄木鸟相关的生态位限制是气候、植被和干扰之间复杂相互作用的结果，我们推测当前广泛尺度的气候 - 啄木鸟模型中对这些过程缺乏充分表征导致了模型与数据的不匹配。作为改进的第一步，我们提出了一个用于整合的气候 - 啄木鸟 - 森林建模概念模型。该整合模型为气候驱动的森林生态系统建模提供了一种生物多样性度量，同时在啄木鸟气候变化建模中保留了气候与植被之间的反馈。
