[Response of phenophase to meteorological conditions and flowering forecast model on Amygdalus communis in Shache County, Xinjiang, China].

Based on the phenophase data of Amygdalus communis and homochronous meteorological observation data at agrometeorological experimental station of Shache County during 2008-2013, the change characteristics of phenological period of A. communis and the effects of temperature and sunshine duration on them were analyzed. The results showed that before flowering, positive correlations existed among the first day of phenological phases, and after flowering, the correlations among the first day of phenological phases were mostly less. A significant positive correlation was observed between earlier bud flower swelling and the days of dormant period. and growth period, and a significant negative correlation existed between later bud flower swelling and the days of dormant period and growth period. Before fruit maturation, there was negative correlation between temperature and the interval days of phenological period, and after fruit maturation, the correlations were mostly positive. But the correlation between sunshine duration and the interval days of phenological period was positive before and after fruit maturation. The interval days from fruit maturation to the beginning date of leaf colour change had evident response to the average maximum temperature, and the interval days from the emergence of inflorescence to the ending data of flowering, and from the beginning date of leaf colour change to the ending date of leaf fall, had obvious response to sunshine duration. When the dormant period exceeded 30 days and the average daily temperature met the rang from -3.0 to -7.5 °C, A. communis would get into the flower swelling period after another 17-28 d. There were one-to-one correspondences between flower swelling, the beginning date of flowering, the beginning date of leaf colour change, the ending date of leaf fall, and the first pentad average temperature greater than or equal to 4 °C and pentad average maximum temperature greater than or equal to 12 °C, pentad average temperature greater than or equal to 14 °C and pentad average maximum temperature greater than or equal to 22 °C in spring, the first pentad temperature less than or equal to 10 °C and pentad average maximum temperature less than or equal to 18 °C in autumn the first pentad average temperature less than or equal to 1.9 °C in winter, respectively. By using partial least squares regression analysis, the first day of flowering forecast model of A. communis was established with good prediction.