Hájková Lenka, Možný Martin, Oušková Veronika, Musilová Adéla, Vlach Vojtěch, Dížková Petra, Bartošová Lenka, Žalud Zdeněk
Department of Biometeorological Applications, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Šabatce 17, Prague, Czech Republic.
Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague 2, Prague, Czech Republic.
Int J Biometeorol. 2023 Mar;67(3):465-473. doi: 10.1007/s00484-023-02426-2. Epub 2023 Jan 18.
The phenological response to climate change differs among species. We examined the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) in connection with meteorological variables in Czechia in the period 1923-2021. The long-term series were analyzed from phenological and meteorological stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). Temporal and spatial evaluation (using Geographic Information System) in timing of beginning of flowering (BBCH 61) of G. nivalis was investigated under urban and rural settings. Furthermore, the detailed analysis of selected meteorological variables to onset of G. nivalis flowering was performed. Moreover, the trends (using Mann-Kendall test) and Pearson's correlation coefficients between phenological phase and meteorological variable were calculated. The main finding of this study was that the trend of the beginning of flowering of the common snowdrop during the studied period (1923-2021) is negative, and it varies in urban and rural environments. The results showed most significant acceleration of the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis by - 0.20 day year in urban area and by - 0.11 day year in rural area. Above that, a major turning point occurred between 1987 and 1988 (both, in phenological observations and meteorological variables), and the variability of the beginning of flowering is significantly higher in the second period 1988-2021. On top of, the study proved that the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis closely correlated with number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) at both types of stations (urban and rural), and with mean air temperature in February, maximum air temperature in January, and minimum air temperature in March. The Mann-Kendall test showed a reduction in the number of days with snow cover above 1 cm (December-March) during 99 years period at Klatovy station (a long-term time series) by - 0.06 day year, i.e., by - 5.94 days per the whole period. Conversely, air temperatures increase (maximum and minimum air temperature by 0.03 °C year (2.97 °C per the whole period) and average air temperature by 0.02 °C year (1.98 °C per the whole period)). Thus, our results indicate significant changes in the beginning of flowering of G. nivalis in Czechia as a consequence of climate change.
物种对气候变化的物候响应各不相同。我们研究了1923年至2021年期间捷克常见雪花莲(雪滴花)开花初期与气象变量之间的关系。从捷克水文气象研究所(CHMI)的物候和气象站分析了长期数据系列。利用地理信息系统对城市和农村环境下雪滴花开花初期(BBCH 61)的时间和空间进行了评估。此外,还对选定的气象变量与雪滴花开花起始时间进行了详细分析。此外,计算了物候期与气象变量之间的趋势(使用曼-肯德尔检验)和皮尔逊相关系数。本研究的主要发现是,在所研究的时期(1923年至2021年),常见雪花莲开花初期的趋势呈负,且在城市和农村环境中有所不同。结果显示,城市地区雪滴花开花初期加速最为显著,每年提前0.20天,农村地区每年提前0.11天。除此之外,在1987年至1988年之间出现了一个主要转折点(在物候观测和气象变量方面均如此),并且在1988年至2021年的第二个时期,开花初期的变异性显著更高。最重要的是,该研究证明,城市和农村两种类型的站点,雪滴花的开花初期都与1厘米以上积雪天数(12月至3月)密切相关,还与2月平均气温、1月最高气温以及3月最低气温密切相关。曼-肯德尔检验显示,在Klatovy站(一个长期时间序列)99年期间,1厘米以上积雪天数(12月至3月)每年减少0.06天,即整个时期减少5.94天。相反,气温升高(最高气温和最低气温每年升高0.03°C(整个时期升高2.97°C),平均气温每年升高0.02°C(整个时期升高1.98°C))。因此,我们的结果表明,气候变化导致捷克雪滴花开花初期发生了显著变化。