Espinoza-Ríos Jorge, Aguilar Sánchez Victor, Bravo Paredes Eduar Alban, Pinto Valdivia José, Huerta-Mercado Tenorio Jorge
Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú; Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
Rev Gastroenterol Peru. 2016 Apr-Jun;36(2):143-52.
Identify the best score that predicts each variable outcome (mortality, rebleeding and need for transfusion for more than 2 red blood cells pack) in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding until 30 days of the event. Material y methods: Patients included were those over 18 years, who had upper gastrointestinal bleeding between January 2014 to June 2015 in a general hospital of third level. The data was analyzed by the area under the curve ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic).
In total, there were 231 cases of upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 154 (66.7%) cases were male, the average age was 57.8 ± 20.02 years, the most common cause of bleeding was peptic ulcer: 111 (48.1%) cases, the mortality rate and rebleeding was 7.8% and 3.9% respectively. 5 patients were excluded from the analysis because they do not count with endoscopy study, the analysis was performed in 226 rest. In the evaluation of mortality, it was found an area under the curve ROC for Glasgow-Blatchford: 0.73, Rockall score: 0.86 and AIMS65 score: 0.90 (p<0.05) to predict rebleeding the Glasgow-Blatchford score: 0.73 Rockall score: 0.66 and AIMS65 score: 0.64 (p=0.41) and transfusion requirements of more than 2 globular packages the Glasgow-Blatchford score: 0.72, Rockall score: 0.67 and AIMS65 score: 0.77 (p=0.09).
AIMS65 score is a good predictor of mortality and is useful in predicting the need for more than 2 transfusions of red blood cells pack compared to score Glasgow-Blatchford and Rockall score.
确定能预测上消化道出血患者直至事件发生后30天内各变量结局（死亡率、再出血以及输注超过2单位红细胞的需求）的最佳评分。材料与方法：纳入的患者为18岁以上，于2014年1月至2015年6月期间在一家三级综合医院发生上消化道出血的患者。数据通过ROC曲线下面积（受试者工作特征曲线）进行分析。
总共231例上消化道出血病例，154例（66.7%）为男性，平均年龄为57.8±20.02岁，最常见的出血原因是消化性溃疡：111例（48.1%），死亡率和再出血率分别为7.8%和3.9%。5例患者因未进行内镜检查而被排除在分析之外，对其余226例进行了分析。在死亡率评估中，发现格拉斯哥-布拉奇福德评分的ROC曲线下面积为0.73，罗卡尔评分：0.86，AIMS65评分：0.90（p<0.05）；预测再出血时，格拉斯哥-布拉奇福德评分：0.73，罗卡尔评分：0.66，AIMS65评分：0.64（p=0.41）；对于输注超过2单位红细胞的需求，格拉斯哥-布拉奇福德评分：0.72，罗卡尔评分：0.67，AIMS65评分：0.77（p=0.09）。
与格拉斯哥-布拉奇福德评分和罗卡尔评分相比，AIMS65评分是死亡率的良好预测指标，且有助于预测输注超过2单位红细胞的需求。
