Perkins T Alex, Paz-Soldan Valerie A, Stoddard Steven T, Morrison Amy C, Forshey Brett M, Long Kanya C, Halsey Eric S, Kochel Tadeusz J, Elder John P, Kitron Uriel, Scott Thomas W, Vazquez-Prokopec Gonzalo M
Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
Department of Global Health Systems and Development, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA, USA Facultad de Salud Pública y Administración, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
Proc Biol Sci. 2016 Jul 13;283(1834). doi: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0390.
Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure.
病原体在其宿主身上引发各种各样的疾病表现,但疾病对受感染宿主行为的影响很少通过实证研究,在传播动力学的数学模型中也很少被考虑。我们探讨了最常见的疾病表现之一——发热,对病原体传播的一个关键决定因素——宿主移动性的潜在影响,研究对象是秘鲁亚马逊城市伊基托斯的居民。我们通过将两组发热个体(登革热阳性和登革热阴性)与一个无发热对照组进行比较来开展此项研究。一项回顾性的半结构化访谈使我们能够量化每次访谈前两周内移动性的多个方面。我们将移动性各方面的嵌套模型与访谈数据进行拟合,并使用似然比检验比较模型,以确定发热或其病因在移动性方面是否存在统计学上可区分的差异。与无发热个体相比,发热的研究参与者在家中待的时间更长,去的地方更少,而且在某些情况下,去离家更近的地方,在某些类型的场所停留的时间更短。这些多方面的影响与疾病介导的宿主移动性变化在宿主接触网络结构中产生动态和复杂变化的可能性是一致的。