Xu N, Liu Y N, Yin P, Wang L J, Dou Y S, Yang W J, Zhou M G
National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing 100050, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2016 Jul 6;50(7):629-33. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2016.07.013.
To investigate the relationship between liver cancer and the water environment, we analyzed the life expectancy in 14 counties (districts), which form the Huai River Basin with respect to liver cancer deaths in 2013 and changes in the surface water quality from 2004 to 2010.
The study area included the 14 counties (districts) of the Huai River Basin in China. We obtained surveillance data for all causes of death in the study area during 2013, as well as data for International Classification of Diseases,Tenth Edition(ICD-10) code C22 or liver cancer. Life expectancy and life expectancy after elimination of liver cancer were then calculated. Based on water quality monitoring data from the China Environment Yearbook 2005-2011, we analyzed the water environment of the Huai River Basin, and changes in the water quality. According to the " Encyclopedia of Rivers and Lakes in China" (Huai River Basin section), we divided the river basin into five categories: upstream basin (upstream); midstream, north shore of the basin (midstream-north); midstream, south shore of the basin (midstream-south); downstream basin (downstream); and the Yishusi River Basin. To calculate the life expectancy and life expectancy after elimination of liver cancer in the study area, we used the Nemerow Pollution Index (NPI), to investigate the relationship between liver cancer and the water environment.
Life expectancy in the 14 study districts varied from 68.99 years (Shenqiu County) to 78.85 years (Jinhu County). Gains in life expectancy after elimination of liver cancer varied from 0.86 to 0.31 years. Midstream-north showed the greatest improvement, with overall gain in life expectancy of 0.77 years; this gain was 1.04 years for males and 0.40 years for females. Yishusi River Basin showed the least improvement, with overall gain in life expectancy of 0.41 years; this gain was 0.54 years for males and 0.24 years for females. For the 7 years from 2004 to 2010, midstream-north had the highest annual NPI values, at 2.08, 1.74, 1.64, 1.81, 1.41, 1.26, and 1.06, respectively. There was a positive correlation between NPI and life expectancy gain for both males and females (r=0.64, P=0.014). There was positive correlation between NPI and life expectancy gain among males alone (r=0.64, P=0.014); there was no significant correlation between NPI and life expectancy gain among females (r=0.44, P=0.115).
Liver cancer had a significant impact on life expectancy in the Huai River Basin. The gain in life expectancy was higher for males than for females. There is a possible relationship between liver cancer deaths and the water environment in the research area, but this study did not infer a causal association.
为研究肝癌与水环境之间的关系，我们分析了构成淮河流域的14个县（区）2013年肝癌死亡人数的预期寿命以及2004年至2010年地表水水质的变化情况。
研究区域包括中国淮河流域的14个县（区）。我们获取了研究区域2013年所有死因的监测数据，以及国际疾病分类第十版（ICD - 10）编码C22或肝癌的数据。然后计算了预期寿命以及消除肝癌后的预期寿命。基于《中国环境年鉴2005 - 2011》的水质监测数据，我们分析了淮河流域的水环境及水质变化。根据《中国河湖大典》（淮河流域部分），我们将流域分为五类：上游流域（上游）；中游北岸流域（中游 - 北）；中游南岸流域（中游 - 南）；下游流域（下游）；以及沂沭泗河流域。为计算研究区域消除肝癌后的预期寿命，我们使用内梅罗污染指数（NPI）来研究肝癌与水环境之间的关系。
14个研究区的预期寿命从68.99岁（沈丘县）到78.85岁（金湖县）不等。消除肝癌后的预期寿命增加量从0.86岁到0.31岁不等。中游 - 北改善最为显著，预期寿命总体增加0.77岁；男性增加1.04岁，女性增加0.40岁。沂沭泗河流域改善最少，预期寿命总体增加0.41岁；男性增加0.54岁，女性增加0.24岁。2004年至2010年的7年间，中游 - 北的年度NPI值最高，分别为2.08、1.74、1.64、1.81、1.41、1.26和1.06。男性和女性的NPI与预期寿命增加量之间均呈正相关（r = 0.64，P = 0.014）。仅男性的NPI与预期寿命增加量之间呈正相关（r = 0.64，P = 0.014）；女性的NPI与预期寿命增加量之间无显著相关性（r = 0.44，P = 0.115）。
肝癌对淮河流域的预期寿命有显著影响。男性预期寿命的增加高于女性。研究区域肝癌死亡与水环境之间可能存在关系，但本研究未推断出因果关联。
