Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea.
Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea.
Sci Total Environ. 2016 Nov 15;571:355-63. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.046. Epub 2016 Jul 25.
The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions.
未来城市增长（如土地利用变化）对韩国首尔大都市地区（SMA）未来气候变率的影响，利用 WRF 模型和城市增长模型（SLEUTH）进行了评估。研究区域的土地利用变化，利用 SLEUTH 模型在三种不同的城市增长情景下进行了模拟：（1）当前发展趋势情景（SC1）、（2）管理发展情景（SC2）和（3）生态发展情景（SC3）。SC1 和 SC3 之间 50 年（2000-2050 年）的城市增长比例最大差异（SC1-SC3）约为 6.72%，导致 2m 高度平均气温（T2）和 10m 高度风速（WS10）的最大差异（分别为 0.01°C 和 0.03ms(-1)）。从 WRF-SLEUTH 建模来看，SMA 未来城市增长（或未来土地利用变化）的影响预计将导致空间平均 T2 和 WS10 分别增加高达 1.15°C 和 0.03ms(-1)，这可能是由于城乡地区之间的热差异引起的热循环所致。
