基于传播动力学模型的流感暴发报告标准比较
[Comparison of Flu Outbreak Reporting Standards Based on Transmission Dynamics Model].
作者信息
Yang Guo-jing, Yi Qing-jie, Li Qin, Zeng Qing
出版信息
Sichuan Da Xue Xue Bao Yi Xue Ban. 2016 May;47(3):394-7.
OBJECTIVE
To compare the current two flu outbreak reporting standards for the purpose of better prevention and control of flu outbreaks.
METHODS
A susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model without interventions was set up first, followed by a model with interventions based on real situation. Simulated interventions were developed based on the two reporting standards, and evaluated by estimated duration of outbreaks, cumulative new cases, cumulative morbidity rates, decline in percentage of morbidity rates, and cumulative secondary cases.
RESULTS
The basic reproductive number of the outbreak was estimated as 8. 2. The simulation produced similar results as the real situation. The effect of interventions based on reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) was better than that of interventions based on reporting standard two (30 accumulated new cases in a week).
CONCLUSION
The reporting standard one (10 accumulated new cases in a week) is more effective for prevention and control of flu outbreaks.
目的
比较当前两种流感暴发报告标准，以便更好地预防和控制流感暴发。
方法
首先建立一个无干预的易感-暴露-感染/无症状-清除（SEIAR）模型，然后根据实际情况建立一个有干预的模型。基于这两种报告标准制定模拟干预措施，并通过暴发估计持续时间、累积新病例数、累积发病率、发病率下降百分比和累积二代病例数进行评估。
结果
估计此次暴发的基本再生数为8.2。模拟结果与实际情况相似。基于报告标准一（一周内累积10例新病例）的干预措施效果优于基于报告标准二（一周内累积30例新病例）的干预措施。
结论
报告标准一（一周内累积10例新病例）对流感暴发的预防和控制更有效。
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