Ober Allison J, Sussell Jesse, Kilmer Beau, Saunders Jessica, Heckathorn Douglas D
RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, USA
Precision Health Economics, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Eval Rev. 2016 Apr;40(2):87-121. doi: 10.1177/0193841X16656313. Epub 2016 Jul 27.
Violent drug markets are not as prominent as they once were in the United States, but they still exist and are associated with significant crime and lower quality of life. The drug market intervention (DMI) is an innovative strategy that uses focused deterrence, community engagement, and incapacitation to reduce crime and disorder associated with these markets. Although studies show that DMI can reduce crime and overt drug activity, one perspective is prominently missing from these evaluations: those who purchase drugs.
This study explores the use of respondent-driven sampling (RDS)-a statistical sampling method-to approximate a representative sample of drug users who purchased drugs in a targeted DMI market to gain insight into the effect of a DMI on market dynamics.
Using RDS, we recruited individuals who reported hard drug use (crack or powder cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, or illicit use of prescriptions opioids) in the last month to participate in a survey. The main survey asked about drug use, drug purchasing, and drug market activity before and after DMI; a secondary survey asked about network characteristics and recruitment.
Our sample of 212 respondents met key RDS assumptions, suggesting that the characteristics of our weighted sample approximate the characteristics of the drug user network. The weighted estimates for market purchasers are generally valid for inferences about the aggregate population of customers, but a larger sample size is needed to make stronger inferences about the effects of a DMI on drug market activity.
暴力毒品市场在美国已不像过去那样突出,但它们仍然存在,并且与严重犯罪和较低的生活质量相关。毒品市场干预(DMI)是一种创新策略,利用重点威慑、社区参与和剥夺能力来减少与这些市场相关的犯罪和混乱。尽管研究表明DMI可以减少犯罪和公开的毒品活动,但这些评估中明显缺少一个视角:那些购买毒品的人。
本研究探索使用应答驱动抽样(RDS)——一种统计抽样方法——来近似在目标DMI市场购买毒品的吸毒者的代表性样本,以深入了解DMI对市场动态的影响。
我们使用RDS招募了在过去一个月内报告有使用烈性毒品(快克或粉末可卡因、海洛因、甲基苯丙胺或非法使用处方阿片类药物)的个人参与一项调查。主要调查询问了DMI前后的毒品使用、毒品购买和毒品市场活动;次要调查询问了网络特征和招募情况。
我们的212名受访者样本符合关键的RDS假设,这表明我们加权样本的特征近似吸毒者网络的特征。市场购买者的加权估计通常对于推断总体客户群体是有效的,但需要更大的样本量才能对DMI对毒品市场活动的影响做出更强有力的推断。