Gianicolo Emilio Antonio Luca, Mangia Cristina, Cervino Marco
Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Research Council, Lecce, Italy.
Institute of Medical Biometrics, Epidemiology and Informatics (IMBEI), Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz, Obere Zahlbacher Str. 69, 55131, Mainz, Germany.
Int J Public Health. 2016 Sep;61(7):777-85. doi: 10.1007/s00038-016-0868-y. Epub 2016 Jul 28.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of various predictors to explain spatial mortality heterogeneity in Taranto.
Direct age-adjusted death rates (ADR) at a neighbourhood level for the period 1998-2010 were examined. SO2, PM10, distance from pollution sources, and socioeconomic status (SES) were tested as predictors within a meta-regression framework. We used τ (2) to quantify heterogeneity in ADR and I (2) statistic with 95 % confidence intervals to estimate the proportion of total variation across neighbourhoods attributable to the between-neighbourhood heterogeneity.
High heterogeneity resulted for all and natural causes of death for both genders. One neighbourhood (Paolo VI) was detected as an outlier for all predictors except SO2, among males. After accounting for SES, moderate heterogeneity among residuals was observed for all-causes of death and was correlated with SO2. Higher concentrations of PM10 were observed in neighbourhoods close to the industrial site and higher concentrations of SO2 in neighbourhoods more distant from the industrial site.
SES and air pollutants were predictors of spatial heterogeneity in ADR. Different distributions of SO2 and PM10 in the city suggested two exposure patterns.
本研究旨在探讨各种预测因素在解释塔兰托市空间死亡率异质性方面的作用。
研究了1998 - 2010年期间社区层面的直接年龄调整死亡率（ADR）。在元回归框架内，将二氧化硫（SO₂）、可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）、与污染源的距离以及社会经济地位（SES）作为预测因素进行检验。我们使用τ²来量化ADR的异质性，并使用具有95%置信区间的I²统计量来估计各社区间异质性在总变异中所占的比例。
男女所有死因和自然死因均呈现出高度异质性。在男性中，除SO₂外，有一个社区（保罗六世社区）在所有预测因素方面均表现为异常值。在考虑SES后，观察到所有死因的残差之间存在中等程度的异质性，且与SO₂相关。靠近工业场地的社区PM₁₀浓度较高，而离工业场地较远的社区SO₂浓度较高。
SES和空气污染物是ADR空间异质性的预测因素。城市中SO₂和PM₁₀的不同分布表明了两种暴露模式。
