2005 - 2020年西澳大利亚州人口老龄化对急诊科紧急运输需求增长的影响

Impact of population ageing on growing demand for emergency transportation to emergency departments in Western Australia, 2005-2020.

作者信息

Aboagye-Sarfo Patrick, Mai Qun, Sanfilippo Frank M, Fatovich Daniel M

机构信息

Clinical Modelling, Health System Improvement Unit, System Policy and Planning, Department of Health, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Clinical Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

出版信息

Emerg Med Australas. 2016 Oct;28(5):551-7. doi: 10.1111/1742-6723.12641. Epub 2016 Jul 28.

DOI:10.1111/1742-6723.12641

PMID:27469467

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present paper is to quantify the impact of population ageing on demand for emergency transportation (ET) to EDs in Western Australia (WA).

METHODS

A population-based longitudinal study using the statewide ED presentation data from 2005-2014 was used to predict ET demand in 2020, stratified by age group and sex.

RESULTS

From 2005 to 2014, 14.9% of all ED presentations arrived by ET. The number rose from 94 369 (13.9%) in 2005 to 153 374 (15.5%) in 2014, a compound annual growth of 5.5%. Of those presentations, 55.2% resulted in hospital admission. The proportion was higher in older age groups (64.5% in 65-74 years, 67.1% in 75-84 years and 68.4% in ≥85 years). Of ED presentations arriving by ET in age group ≥65 years, 70.9% were Australasian Triage Scale category 1, 2 or 3. The rate of ET per 1000 population increased in all age groups and sex. The highest growth was in the older age groups: from 86.6, 187.0 and 512.1 in ages 65-74 years, 75-84 years and ≥85 years, respectively, in 2005 to 102.5, 226.7 and 613.6 in 2014, and are expected to increase to 115.1, 264.3 and 707.7 by 2020. The ET demands in these age groups were projected to increase annually by 5.0%, 3.6% and 4.9%, respectively, in the next 6 years, comparing to less than 4.5% in the younger age groups.

CONCLUSION

There has been a continuous rise in ET demand in WA, particularly in older people who have a higher urgency and requirement for admission.

摘要

目的

本文旨在量化人口老龄化对西澳大利亚州（WA）急诊科紧急转运（ET）需求的影响。

方法

采用基于人群的纵向研究，利用2005年至2014年全州急诊科就诊数据，按年龄组和性别分层预测2020年的ET需求。

结果

2005年至2014年，所有急诊科就诊患者中14.9%通过ET抵达。数量从2005年的94369例（13.9%）增至2014年的153374例（15.5%），年复合增长率为5.5%。在这些就诊患者中，55.2%导致住院。老年组这一比例更高（65 - 74岁为64.5%，75 - 84岁为67.1%，85岁及以上为68.4%）。在65岁及以上年龄组通过ET抵达急诊科的就诊患者中，70.9%为澳大利亚分诊量表1、2或3级。各年龄组和性别的每千人口ET率均有所上升。增长最高的是老年组：分别从2005年65 - 74岁的86.6、75 - 84岁的187.0和85岁及以上的512.1增至2014年的102.5、226.7和613.6，预计到2020年将增至115.1、264.3和707.7。预计在未来6年，这些年龄组的ET需求将分别以每年5.0%、3.6%和4.9%的速度增长，而年轻年龄组的增长率不到4.5%。