Predicting the number of emergency department presentations in Western Australia: a population-based time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE

To predict the number of ED presentations in Western Australia (WA) in the next 5 years, stratified by place of treatment, age, triage and disposition.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based time series analysis of 7 year monthly WA statewide ED presentation data from the financial years 2006/07 to 2012/13 using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multivariate vector-ARIMA techniques.

RESULTS

ED presentations in WA were predicted to increase from 990,342 in 2012/13 to 1,250,991 (95% CI: 982,265-1,519,718) in 2017/18, an increase of 260,649 (or 26.3%). The majority of this increase would occur in metropolitan WA (84.2%). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in metropolitan WA in the next 5 years was predicted to be 6.5% compared with 2.0% in the non-metropolitan area. The greatest growth in metropolitan WA would be in ages 65 and over (CAGR, 6.9%), triage categories 2 and 3 (8.3% and 7.7%, respectively) and admitted (9.8%) cohorts. The only predicted decrease was triage category 5 (-5.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

ED demand in WA will exceed population growth. The highest growth will be in patients with complex care needs. An integrated system-wide strategy is urgently required to ensure access, quality and sustainability of the health system.